Archive for the 'Mortgage Musings' Category

Seniors Banking on Reverse Mortgage’s Stuck Without Cash

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Back as the credit crunch was picking up steam wholesale account reps would parade in to our offices touting the saving grace of our brokerage - reverse mortgages. As a FHA-approved lender we were eligible to write reverse mortgages for seniors who had lots of equity, little cash, and no other assets to live off of (for the most part). These wholesale reps were excited because their banks had just opened up a new wave of products called “jumbo reverse mortgages” which went far beyond the lending limits of the FHA-insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for high-value areas such as California.

The siren call was the same - these loans were expensive and property-owners strapped for cash had little opportunity to extract equity in any other way. The jumbo reverse mortgages were the best solution and represented a hefty payday in times that were clearly becoming more lean and more mean as the credit crunch got into high gear. Jumbo reverse mortgages allowed homeowners who lived in expensive homes to tap large amounts of equity to support their retirement by either pulling out a lump sum of cash, taking a monthly stipend or opening up a line of credit. Without a monthly payment these loans are attractive to retirees looking for additional income.

Jumbo Reverse Mortgages Disappear Rather Quietly

But as the credit crunch has accelerated and the market for residential loan products dried up reverse mortgages became less attractive to investors. With property values declining and inflation increasing the risk profile of a “jumbo” reverse mortgage became too severe for banks. Specialists in reverse mortgages such as Financial Freedom quietly pulled the plug on their jumbo reverse mortgages back in March to little fanfare at the time. More recently Bank of America, UBS and Credit Suisse did the same.

The elimination of these products makes complete sense from a lender’s perspective. With housing prices dropping like a rock in water in the most highly-priced areas (such as California) the jumbo reverse mortgage were no longer a good bet. Lenders were more likely to end up with an undervalued asset at the maturation of the loan.

Unfortunately it has crippled retirees who were banking on home equity to make it through retirement.

Seniors banking on their house find themselves stuck

Seniors in California and other high-value areas who held on to their home as their primary retirement vehicle have been completely upended by the declining housing market, tightening underwriting guidelines and the elimination of jumbo reverse mortgage products. Many who were banking on their home and a reverse mortgage loan have found their borrowing capacity with the reverse mortgage to has been filleted - and those looking for the biggest loans are staring at the prospect of a very small reverse mortgage with very little cash as a result.

To add insult to injury retired seniors have seen traditional financing options dry up as loan availability to retired persons has reverted to fully-documented income loans which with large property and loan amounts in California are unrealistic, nay unattainable, financing options. Further, in this market they may be unable to sell their home for anywhere near the value it held just a few short months ago completely eliminating all access to equity in their home.

Seniors are Victims Here?

It’s hard to say that seniors who put all of their eggs in one basket are the victims in this case. Just as one who owns all their stock in one company - these seniors either bet wrong or didn’t pay attention to the fact that they weren’t diversified. It does pain me though to see seniors who are house poor not able to convert asset they are sitting on in to capital in any way, shape or form.

An instructive lesson?

The inability of seniors to obtain these jumbo reverse mortgages does go to show that equity in your home is not anything you really ever own. It is simply a measure of the current market and nothing more. Products are ephemeral, guidelines and value too. It will be interesting to track what happens to these seniors suddenly shut out from their retirement capital. These years suddenly don’t look so golden.

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Is Bank of America headed towards principal reductions?

Reader Paul (big hat tip to him) pulled a key comment out of the B of A press release issued earlier this week that addressed Bank of America’s efforts to help homeowners keep their home. The comment, burried at the bottom of the release was:

“We will continue to work with distressed borrowers to match the customer’s repayment ability with the appropriate loss mitigation option, including loan modifications, forbearances, repayment plans, lower rates and principal reductions,” McGee said. “

Paul thought it was absurd that no one pressed McGee on the last point which was “principal reductions.” This, he argued correctly, is a massive change in policy for the industry, as banks have been fighting tooth and nail to make sure that court-ordered principal reductions (cram downs) aren’t enforced from the bench.
The Implications of a BofA-led Principal Reduction Effort Would be Staggering

If Bank of America is truly making principal reductions a part of it’s “home-saving” playbook it would have incredibly wide-spread implications across not only the banking industry but the housing market and general economy.

As Paul mentioned, the press didn’t have a chance to grill him on this point and I agree with him that McGee needs to be held accountable for what he said and to outline in greater detail just what role these principal reductions are playing (or will play) in BofA’s loan modification process.

Bank of America, if they are making principal reductions even a trivial part of their options in keeping homeowners put they will set a precedent which will inexorably alter the housing market. Think of the ramifications of this action.

First of all, Bank of America’s adoption of this policy would make it essentially an industry-accepted practice overnight. Lenders of all types would gladly follow their lead in an effort to keep their REO rolls from growing exponentially. Why wouldn’t a lender take a $25,000 principal reduction if it keeps the mortgage current than risk the pain and headache of foreclosing for a property that might only sell for 50% of the current note?

The Ultimate Moral Hazard

Homeowners who are struggling with their payments due to myriad reasons (from fraudulently overstating their income to a resetting option-arm to death of the primary wage earner) will see principal reductions to keep them in their home. The homeowner next door in a comparable home will not see that relief as long as they continue to make their payments on time.

Homeowners are rewarded for feigning problems with their mortgage payments to get the reduction. It’s a less-painful version of mailing in your keys. Go down 60-days on your mortgage and get a nice chunk of your loan balance forgiven.

A Good Homeowner Gamble?

The argument that the mere idea of a damaged credit score is enough to keep full-balance folks paying right along while their neighbors get gifted $50k loses credibility in the current environment. If I’m a homeowner (which I am) and I’m current on my mortgage (yes, again) and I’m seeing all of the bail out plans and changes being made and I see Bank of America add principal reductions to their loan modification tool kit for delinquent borrowers I might start to think that there is going to be some government intervention on future credit as a result of this mess too.

Think about it - with all of the changes to save homeowners who are losing their homes and going down late on their mortgages the government will surely want to address future credit opportunities for those bailed-out. They may even be thinking of a way to help folks who suffered a foreclosure or late payments by a “resetting ARM” be distinguished in credit scoring from those who faced bankruptcy or late payments on consumer debt.

If I’m a homeowner who is seeing principal reduction around them I might trade $50,000 in debt forgiveness for a couple of years of higher interest-rate costs. Heck a back-of-the-envelope calculation might show that it’s worth it even without changes to current credit scoring methods and the laws governing same.

Is Once Enough?

Do you only get one shot at the reduction? Blown Mortgage regular Ann had this to say about the principal reduction path:

The question I have is what types of loans are going to be modified? Teaser ARMS? MTA’s? Also how do you modify? Based on True income when it was a liar loan? Principal Reductions in a declining market..does that mean that a year from now when the price goes down another 10% are those borrowers going to expect more? What about the average Joe next door, who isn’t a “troubled” borrower and now has a principal balance of $300K..while his neighbor had 50K forgiven and now has principal balance of $250K?

Seems to me there is no end in sight…

And that’s another major challenge. What happens to the neighbor who takes the write-down now, and then sees his neighbor take a write-down in six-months that is double the amount forgiven to him? Does that neighbor sue Bank of America for an additional reduction?

Where do Second Mortgages Fit In?

The questions keep going. What about second mortgages? Where do those fit in? Does Bank of America forgive debt on the second first or keep the higher-rate (mostly unsecured) second debt and reduce the principal on the first? How does that get figured out.

What did McGee Mean?

In the end Paul is right - what is Bank of America really considering with these loan modifications and principal reductions as they mentioned in their sweeping press release about homeownership. Did they “misspeak”? Were they only pointing to the options available in the entire universe of home-saving? It’s a question that needs to be drilled down on and Bank of America needs to be held accountable to what they said for the sake of all participants in this market.

What do you think?

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Sample stated loan research shows 3 out of 5 inflated income at least 50%

Want to know why stated income loans are called liar loans? Because people lie on stated income loans. Not just some people, some of the time and by some little exaggeration. It’s most of the people, most of the time by mostly large exaggerations. Take a look at this Slate article on the liar loan and you’ll see why subprime is a drop in the bucket. Pay close attention to Mish Shedlock’s analysis of a pool of stated income loans with a median FICO of 705 and tell me we’re through the worst of it.

Remember, most of the good credit loans are ticking down to adjustment as we speak. Wave number two, gaining on the horizon is going to be grim.

From the article on the liar loans:

In 2006, a man named Steven Krystofiak gave a statement in a Federal Reserve hearing on mortgage regulation, representing an organization called the Mortgage Brokers Association for Responsible Lending. The organization had compared a sample of 100 stated income mortgage applications to IRS records.

More than 90 of the applications overstated the borrower’s income at least a little. More strikingly, more than three out of five overstated it by at least 50 percent. (emph mine) This isn’t a few people fibbing a little. This was the whole system breaking down.

The consequences are predictably depressing. A blogger named Michael Shedlock has done some terrific work tracking the performance of these kinds of loans. Shedlock analyzed one particular bundle of loans from Washington Mutual consisting of 1,765 mortgages from around May 2007, a total of $519 million in loans.

These were not “subprime” loans. The borrowers’ average credit score was 705, well within prime territory. This is a fairly typical package of loans for a mortgage-backed security, but one thing that does make it stand out is the proportion of these loans that didn’t ask for income documents: 88 percent.

Historically, a year into the life of a loan, well less than 1 percent of typical prime loans would be 30 days late or more. By the end of January, when Shedlock first looked at it, just eight months after the loans were made, almost one in five were at least 60 days overdue.

Shedlock looked at it again two months later, at the end of March. The results:

  • Eighteen percent of the loans are already in foreclosure—or have already been seized by Washington Mutual.
  • One in four of this bundle of liar loans is already 60 days past due.
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I want their job…

The prescient executives at Washington Mutual must have seen it coming. How else can you explain the March change to their compensation plans that ensures bonuses are granted without consideration to the impact of the credit crunch and bad mortgage bets made by the bank? It must be nice setting your own rules.

Yes - I think I’ll make my bonus this year dependent on all of my successes taken in a vacuum without regard to the destruction I wrought with my over-zealous greed and shortsightedness. Sold!

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OECD: Subprime losses could hit $420 billion

The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) reported that the losses related to the subprime mortgage bust could hit $420 billion based on an ultimate recovery of mark-to-market assets to 40 to 50% of their initial value. The OECD denied that the $1 trillion loss that the IMF has been reporting lately is incorrect because the estimate includes losses that would occur in any market and doesn’t take in to account the recovery of certain assets over a longer time horizon.

The $420 billion loss represents a $120 billion increase in the OECD’s initial subprime loss estimates.

From Reuters on the subprime loss totals:

The cost of the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market may be around $350-420 billion, and a $1-trillion figure floated by the IMF is misleading, OECD officials said on Tuesday.

The OECD, which until now was predicting a cost of $300 billion in losses and writedowns, said it had ceased using market price, or mark-to-market methods, and was instead using assumptions of ultimate recovery rates of 40-50 percent on asset values.

Seeking Alpha pulled another great quote from the article that points to the size of the losses to-date:

“It could take six to 12 months for banks to grow themselves out of losses of this size, and longer if capital for actual expansion were required.” – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Financial Markets Committee chairman Thomas Wieser

What I want to know is how are these numbers being calculated? What assumptions are being made about the large swath of option-arm loans and other exotic prime loans set to adjust in the near future? I don’t think anyone has any idea about how these exotic prime loans are going to perform when they begin to reset in negative-equity situations. In fact, it’s safe to assume that based on the so-called “expert” estimates to date that the calculations are entirely too bullish and that we’ll see much bigger losses as the next wave of prime resets sweeps through in a greatly-reduced equity environment.

I think the bottom line is that all of these “experts” and estimates are using a varying degree of fuzzy math that they themselves have no clue as to the accuracy of their assumptions - making each one of these numbers that the various organizations throw out just as likely or unlikely as the next.

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Mortgage Bankers vs. Mortgage Brokers - the Royal Rumble

This post is from the Blown Mortgage Hall of Fame.  It caused quite a commotion when I originally posted it.  You can read the original comments here.  There are pros and cons to mortgage brokering vs. mortgage banking - I guess the question now is which one is going to last.  I’m a day away from my vacation - can’t wait to catch up with you all!

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Several people have asked me to comment on the differences between mortgage brokers and mortgage bankers and levy an opinion on which I believe to be the better business model. I am, of course, weighing in on what I believe the best model to deliver service and a solid loan to a consumer, and will ignore owner-related issues such as profit margins as they do not relate to the overall customer experience. This is not meant to be a deep introspection of the two models; rather, consider it a survey of some of the important differences between the two and their implications on customers interacting with each.
If you’re wondering why I may be able to speak to this argument with any rigor it is due to the fact that the company I own has operated under both the mortgage broker and mortgage banker business models. As the champion of our switch from brokering to banking, and the change agent involved in the transition, I have a first hand knowledge of all aspects of the differences between the two models. With this understanding I believe I can candidly discuss the pros and cons of both models; and what the implications of each are for the customer.

For those of you with limited time or attention, I’ll share my conclusion with you here. With anything complicated the answer is “it depends,” and here is the distillation of the below: if you are unconcerned about loan-product selection and you are a very vanilla-type borrower then I would suggest choosing the mortgage banker. If you are concerned about a wide selection or you have a difficult financial or credit history I would suggest choosing the mortgage broker. With one caveat, I would always suggest the mortgage broker over the small mortgage bank.

The Broker Argument
The broker argument is often surmised as follows. The broker has a wide range of bank partners and loan options, making it easy for brokers to find and place the best loan for a customer in terms of price, rate and terms of the loan. The argument continues, not incidentally, that people with difficult-to-document situations can be served by this wide network of lending partners. Brokers will also excitedly share with you the discount you receive by receiving “wholesale” rates that are below the market that banks offer. The reasoning is that because the broker is responsible for overhead they receive a reduced rate from the bank – which they are graciously passing on to you, the customer.

An Argument against Brokers
Often, you’ll hear someone who works for a bank or a mortgage banker tell you that working with a mortgage broker is bad news with the following pitch. A broker is an independent third party, with zero decision-making ability; they don’t approve your loan and have to wait in line with all other mortgage brokers while they wait for a decision from the underwriting department. Further, when you have a middleman you pay for that extra party involved. They have expenses that they need to cover by fees charged up front on a loan; which means higher upfront charges to you.

The Banker Argument
The banker argument sounds a bit like this. By working with a direct lender you have eliminated and expensive middleman who has zero decision-making ability. You have decided to come straight to the source; and because we lend our own money we are able to make underwriting decisions, gain special exceptions, and process your loan much faster at a much lower cost to you. Everything is done in-house, there is no waiting inline, no false promises – I can give you a fully underwritten approval from right down the hall. A mortgage broker can’t really tell you what you’re approved for until they hear back from the bank, which can be weeks. Why put yourself through that when I can tell you right now whether you’re approved or not? And remember, we are a financial institution, a direct lender, not just a fly-by-night broker who you are not sure is going to be there tomorrow.

An Argument against Bankers
Often, when a broker is competing against a banker they’ll use some derivative of the following argument. Mortgage bankers are exceptionally limited in the products that they are able to offer. They make their money by producing volume in limited product categories; in addition they don’t have the opportunity to shop for the true best deal for you. You only get to choose from what they offer, and depending on their specialty, those rates and programs could be far from the market value. You also don’t see how much money they truly make on your loan. They could be making thousands of dollars in additional hidden profit by giving you a higher interest rate than you deserve.Further, many small mortgage banks are nothing more than brokers on steroids. Since they sell your loan immediately they don’t always have ultimate control like they say they do. Finally, your loan will be sold immediately. This means that you may be confused about whom to make your payment to, and will have to deal with the headaches of your lender changing almost as soon as the ink dries on your loan documents.

Common Misconceptions about Brokers
With anything confusing people attempt to simplify the story to make it easier to understand. We are far better at remembering and making sense out of stories than we are at remembering and processing lists of facts and figures. That’s why people tell stories and don’t rattle off bulleted lists. The problem with the way we process information and remember stories however; is that we tend to over-simplify to make the story cleaner and easier to tell and remember. For most things the result is negligible, and the simplification suits us well; for others this tendency can be damaging. Such is the case in a complex comparison between brokers and bankers. By distilling to simple comparisons we fall victims to the lack of focus on key distinctions and facts.

Here are some common misconceptions about brokers, and a humble rebuttal.

Brokers don’t have to be licensed
This is patently wrong (mostly, depending on the state). Brokers are governed by state licensing institutions and therefore require licenses to operate. Federally chartered banks are not subject to state licensing requirements and therefore do not need to have their employees licensed under the state regulations in the jurisdictions where they operate. The efficacy of licensing is a debate for another time; but suffice to say, according to (most) state laws brokers of residential home loans need a license.

Brokers have no decision making power
This is wrong as well. While this myth is most likely perpetuated from the past, brokers have many of the same tools as the mortgage banks in terms of underwriting and qualifying a borrower for a home loan, on the spot. Brokers have access to the same Automated Underwriting Systems (AUS) that most mortgage bankers do. This allows brokers to obtain instant approvals in-house with out needing to ship the file off to the bank for approval. Once an AUS approve is obtained, the bank simply verifies the documentation supports the information uploaded in to the AUS; they do not re-underwrite the loan, and they do not review the decision (except as noted).

This means that an approval from a broker is as solid as the one from the bank. In fact, the mortgage bank is going to do the exact same thing. Where this myth holds is in the offices of the “old school” brokers who refuse to run files through AUS prior to submitting files to the bank. By avoiding this recent technological advance the broker is putting you in line with others; and then truly has no decision making ability. Some times, if you are a subprime borrower or have a unique lending circumstance, brokers may not be able to issue an AUS approval, and then your file will need a complete underwrite at the bank your loan is destined.

Brokers are financially unstable
Bankers love to portray all mortgage brokers as fly-by-night operations that don’t have the capitalization or the stability to be a direct lender. This is certainly true in some cases. Some people who obtain a brokers license choose to practice their craft on a part-time basis, others are truly the fly-by-night variety, in the industry for a quick buck and then gone the moment things get tough; however, there are some brokers that are well established, have a longer track record of success than a mortgage banker, are better capitalized and have made a choice to stay a broker.

Brokers are a rip-off
There seems to be an American quality that drives us to “eliminate the middle man,” perhaps it’s been the successful marketing over the years of direct-to-consumer efforts of other industries. We love Costco, we love discount “wholesalers” we loathe paying markups and dealing with middlemen. In the case of mortgage brokers some are certainly rip-offs. The fact remains however that anyone issuing credit to you in the form of a home loan can rip you off. Bankers can certainly charge excessive fees with the best of under-handed brokers. Loan officers at banks and loan officers in a brokerage all have varying moral compasses and the institution they work for has little to do with their current direction.

Here are some common misconceptions about mortgage bankers; again with a rebuttal:

Bankers charge more on loans – you just don’t know it
Some brokers argue that because mortgage bankers are not required by law (like brokers are) to disclose the compensation paid to them for selling premium interest rates, bankers are able to dupe the customer in to a higher interest rate to reap additional hidden profit. While it is true that bankers do not need to disclose that hidden profit (known as yield spread premium, see link for in-depth explanation) most are unable to maximize that hidden profit because to do so would price them out of the competitive interest rate market. Hidden profit cannot be made unless there are higher interest rates charged to the customer. Unless the customer is blindly accepting the rate on good faith, they should be able to quickly surmise that the rate offered is way out of line with even a superficial comparison shopping effort.

This competitive environment often limits this ability to hide profit from customers from turning in to a “rip off.”

Bankers are limited to only one of two programs
I’ve heard the silly argument that bankers are bad for consumers because they only offer say, product A or B, and if product A or B isn’t ideal for the customer the mortgage banker still steers them in to one regardless better options “out there.” While bankers do customarily have fewer bank relationships than brokers, this does not necessarily mean they are more limited in the mortgage products they can offer. Take for instance a mortgage banker that sells to Countrywide. This banker may have in excess of 150 different loan products running the full spectrum of financing options.

Additionally, mortgage bankers may be allowed (based on the business rules established in the institution) to take loans that don’t “fit” their banking guidelines through the broker channel and act in a limited broker capacity; that is they can farm your loan out if it doesn’t fit internal guidelines. As I said, their ability to do that is really dependent upon the institution they work for.

Bankers have better rates
Some people mistakenly believe that bankers have lower rates than brokers. It probably stems from the “eliminate the middleman” pitch that we discussed above. This myth is just that, a myth. Rates are based upon the rate available to the bank for the particular loan program PLUS the markup charged by the banker to cover their expenses and add to the bottom line. This markup is hidden from you, the borrower, and often from the employees – definitely the sales team. Brokers must disclose all rate markups. This doesn’t imply that banker rates are higher than broker rates, but it does suggest that regardless of business model their will be fluctuations based on decisions made at each individual business.

Some pros and cons of working with a broker

Pros

  • Low overhead can lead to lower rates
  • Wide range of products from diverse lending sources
  • Can source many different financing options
  • Must disclose all compensation associated with loan

Cons

  • Necessary middleman
  • Sometimes limited decision making ability
  • Can be ephemeral, lower barrier to entry for business owners

Some pros and cons of working with a mortgage banker

Pros

  • On-site decision making ability, more control over the process
  • Better rates for larger banks (volume discounting)

Cons

  • Don’t disclose yield spread premium profit
  • May charge additional fees to support overhead (underwriting, etc.)
  • May not have true decision making ability

Why I don’t like small mortgage banks
I said earlier that if you had to choose between a broker and a small mortgage banker to always go with the broker. Here’s why I believe that.

Decision Making Ability
To make a decision on a loan you need an underwriter to sign off on the loan and a funder to coordinate the funding by ensuring the final documents are in place that make the loan “sellable.” When those two positions are properly performing their job functions you have in-house decision making ability on loan approval and funding. The problem with small mortgage banks is that they may not have underwriting and funding in-house. This takes the decision making ability right back out of the hands of the small mortgage bank; making them no better than a mortgage broker on steroids.

Small mortgage banks may not have underwriting and funding in-house due to the high expense associated with the positions. Underwriters are not cheap, and while funders are relatively inexpensive it is a fixed cost that some smaller operations choose to not incur. So if you are working with a small mortgage bank they may have a contract underwriter or a part-time underwriter or use an underwriting service to approve the loans they plan on writing. This invalidates their argument of having centrally-based decision making ability because they are sending their loan files off to another source outside of their organization for someone else to underwrite and make the decision. This is exactly what brokers do.

To exacerbate that problem, smaller mortgage banks often require prior approval from either their warehouse line or end investor (the bank ultimately buying the loan) or both. This means that not only does the small mortgage bank have to underwrite the loan (by sending it out?) but they also need to receive approval from their warehouse credit facility to lend the money and they may even need the investor’s prior approval to buy the loan before they are willing or able to fund the loan.

So hopefully you can see the added complexity that can bog down your loan when you use a small mortgage bank. Instead of one approval, they may need up to 3 approvals before your loan is truly approved and ready to go. Most of these problems are alleviated when you use a larger mortgage banker who has in-house, delegated underwriting authority. The question to ask when someone tells you they are a direct lender is “Do you have in-house underwriting?” and “Do you have delegated approval authority from your investor?” If the answers are yes to both of these questions then you are in pretty good shape; if not the service provider is going through extra hoops to approve your loan for funding.

Costs
As I mentioned above underwriters and funders are not cheap, and they are fixed costs for a mortgage bank; costs that aren’t there for mortgage brokers. There are other costs for mortgage bankers that are not associated with brokers – warehouse interest fees, document preparation fees, fees associated with the loan sale and transfer, and of course the added salaries of the people involved in the process.

These costs need to be recouped by small mortgage banks, and they often do it either by adding hidden profit in to the loans in the form of inflated interest rates, or by charging additional fees on the closing statement to recoup the costs of mortgage banking business. For a smaller mortgage bank that doesn’t do a lot of volume the need to recoup costs may be much higher on a per loan basis than a larger mortgage bank. Again these costs are non-existent for a mortgage broker.

You can see that a large mortgage banker, who operates on volume and therefore only needs to recoup a small portion of expenses on each funded loan; and a mortgage broker who doesn’t have the associated costs with their business model, may be less expensive than the smaller mortgage bank.

Higher Interest Rates
Continuing with the above, the need to recoup costs while profiting in a higher-overhead environment can often times manifest itself in interest rate mark ups. That is, the mortgage banker is not required to disclose yield spread premium profit on each loan. They therefore are able to mark up the rates offered to them by investors in secret, before delivering them to the sales staff so that there is a fixed profit margin on each interest rate quoted. This is often profit for the house and not known by the sales staff. In order to achieve this profit though there needs to be a spread between the interest rate offered by the investor and the interest rate charged to the customer by the mortgage banker. This can be anywhere from a few percentage points to a quarter or half-again higher interest rate.

This is exacerbated in smaller institutions because of the pressure to increase margins on each unit funded because of the overhead expense associated with banking. Larger institutions can make smaller profit on each individual unit; relying on volume to make up the difference.

In Conclusion
The banker/broker argument is a bit overblown. It is often used as a sales tool and the benefits of each are usually espoused the strongest based on the company’s current business model. Bankers push banking and brokers push brokering. As both a banker and a broker (a small banker, btw) I think that both models are efficient and have pros and cons that offset one another and are often overblown. I think that consumers, real estate professionals and other interacting with the lending community should not base their decisions on the business model chosen by the financing source (broker or banker) but rather on the individual merits of the people and institution. Regardless of model, I would look for people that tell the full story and look out for the best interests of the borrower as tantamount to any of the concerns above. Bankers and brokers both can be excellent sources of financing and lousy sources of financing. It’s up to the borrower to and business partner to choose their financing source based on service, honesty, integrity and follow through; more so than rate, cost or business model.

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Zillow Mortgage Launches - How do you rate?

Zillow launched its mortgage product tonight and from my review of the platform seem to have taken a major step in the right direction when it comes to leveraging the internet to provide consumers with quality mortgage options without the treachery that is online lead generation. I had a sneak peak at the platform and I’m duly impressed at the way Zillow has put consumers in control of the transaction right from the start.

You’ll see the new Mortgage Marketplace as a new tab in Zillow’s home page navigation and there are two paths once you get to the marketplace, either as a lender or as a borrower. If you remember about a month ago Zillow started taking lender applications to prime the system to be ready for this day. I made a big deal out of the vetting that went in to the application process and I’ll go in to detail now about why that was such a big deal. The lender side isn’t that sexy, so let’s talk about what the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace means for the consumer.

Accurate information without the hounding

The paradigm-shifting change at Zillow is the separation of the consumer’s contact information from the loan information.  This gives the consumer total anonymity when soliciting mortgage quotes which is something that must sound like music to consumers’ ears.  With this one move Zillow has eliminated a MAJOR pain point for borrowers shopping online for a mortgage.  

The number one complaint we received from internet-based leads was that they had been hounded to death on the phone for business.  I knew of a lady who lost her job because her office line rang incessantly after she filled out a lead on lowermybills.com.  People turn off their phones, unplug their home phones and generally do whatever they can to avoid be hounded to death once their information gets out on the internet.  

Zillow allows them to 100% control the interaction by getting custom mortgage quotes by providing their scenario in a standard pre-qual format (their interface is pretty similar to a typical online prequalification form you’d see elsewhere - Zillowfied of course) minus their personal information.  Zillow has made it a bit more user-friendly by helping people estimate their credit scores through a series of questions and have also made the mortgage product choices easier by eliminating some of the more exotic programs from the quote options.

Once a consumer submits this anonymous quote lenders in the system can “bid” on the quote. They can quote rates, fees and terms that are submitted with a brief introductory paragraph from them as well as their picture and a link to their profile page.  The principal and interest payments are automatically calculated by Zillow based on the loan program, term and fees and the taxes and insurance are estimated based on property records (Zestimate?) so that there can’t be any manipulation of those numbers.  

Consumers are presented these quotes as they arrive and when they find one they like they can choose to contact the lender directly and share any additional information they choose to at that next step.  They are never bothered by unsolicited phone calls or emails.

The Originator Rating

In addition to the quotes that they receive that come packaged with an intro paragraph, easy-to-understand terms and pre-calculated payments the originators submitting the quote carry ratings with them of 0 to 5.  These ratings are calculated based on consumer feedback after dealing with the originator.  The ratings have nothing to do with fees or loan terms and everything to do with the process of working with that lender.  So if there were changes in the loan, or things seemed shady or uncertain consumers can rate that originator poorly, and vice-versa.

Loan originators who feel wrongly scored can rebut the poor score and all of it is kept with their profile to provide consumers the clear picture of who they are dealing with.  They can now determine whether they want to work with the person with the lowest rates and fees and a low rating, or pick someone with a higher rating that has higher fees.

I think this is a great step towards providing transparency for consumers and an easy-to-understand scoring system that allows them to make choices in a difficult decision-making environment.  Of course, Zillow will have to police the marketplace and eliminate offenders on both sides of the wall, ensuring that slanderous consumers don’t blackball innocent lenders and vice-versa; but the step is a positive one and one that should help consumers in their quest for an honest, straight-forward (non-blown) mortgage.

Originators get transparency too

In addition to the consumer getting multiple, anonymous offers the originators who are submitting the offer can see all of the other offers that the consumer has received and who has submitted those offers.  This is a great tool for originators to use as market intelligence - they now know who and what they are selling against.  They can talk intelligently about the universe of offers that the consumer has without having to sell without any information about what or who they are competing with.  I think this will be a big help in letting originators determine what customers they quote, how they quote and their overall strategy towards leveraging this platform.

The Code of Conduct

In addition to the upfront vetting that Zillow performs on originator-applicants Zillow has rolled out a Mortgage Marketplace “Code of Conduct” for all parties involved.  The code calls on consumers to be law-abiding, honest in their disclosure of income, credit and other material qualification criteria, and fair and reasonable in their rating of originators.  Originators are called on to be law-abiding, upfront, to stick to their original quotes as long as material facts don’t change from beginning to end, and to respect consumer’s in the marketplace regardless of what the consumer ultimately decides to do.

Zillow will of course play ombudsman in its sandbox and will bounce originators and consumers who use the marketplace in ways that Zillow deems unacceptable to a healthy environment.  This is at their sole discretion. 

Here are the highlights from the Zillow Code of Conduct, you can read the whole thing here:

Principles for Lenders

  • Stand behind your quotes
    Don’t provide lowball loan quotes and teaser rates to intentionally draw in a borrower and then “readjust” your quote. We alert borrowers that the anonymous nature of Loan Quotes prevents an initial quote from being a binding Good Faith Estimate; however, we expect you to stand by your quote if the information provided by the borrower is accurate.
  • Disclose all terms of the deal
    Be upfront and transparent with various rates and fees so that borrowers will regard you as a trusted lender. Do not hide details of the loan in fine print; our loan quote form is designed to easily identify these costs. Be ready to answer questions and walk borrowers through each step of the process. Helpful lenders will get good ratings on Zillow, leading to more business down the road.
  • Obey the law
    Discrimination in mortgage lending is prohibited by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Fair Housing Act and the Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity actively enforces those provisions of the law. The Fair Housing Act makes it unlawful to engage in the following practices based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status or handicap (disability): 

    • Refuse to make a mortgage loan
    • Refuse to provide information regarding loans
    • Impose different terms or conditions on a loan, such as different interest rates, points, or fees
    • Discriminate in appraising property
    • Refuse to purchase a loan or set different terms or conditions for purchasing a loan
  • No spamming
    If you have made contact with a borrower and things didn’t work out, please be professional and end your contact with that person. Do not add their contact information to your promotional lists or provide their contact information to others unless you specifically ask for the borrower’s permission first.

Principles for Borrowers

  • Accuracy, accuracy, accuracy
    Be accurate when filling out mortgage loan requests, particularly when you estimate your credit score. Lenders will prepare quotes based on the information you provide. If you submit information that is not accurate, you will get loan quotes based on inaccurate information and the quote will likely need to be readjusted.
  • Rate/review mindfully
    You may rate any lender you’ve contacted through Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. However, your rating for a lender with whom you’ve closed a loan carries more weight because you experienced the full extent of the lender’s service. So, please rate thoughtfully so that others can benefit from your feedback. 

    • If you contacted a lender, but did not close — Your rating should be based on how responsive a lender was in providing a quote and follow-through during the process; it should not be based on the quote received.
    • If you contacted a lender and closed a loan with them - Your rating should be based on how responsive a lender was in providing a quote, finding the right loan for you, the rate and terms for the quote and follow-through during the closing process.
  • Report questionable or unscrupulous behavior
    While Lender Ratings is one of the most valuable tools you can use to rate the quality of a lender, we also want to know if you encounter any questionable practices by any lender. Contact Zillow Customer Support by e-mail at mortgagesupport AT zillow.com so that we can quickly respond if necessary. Also, if you feel you have been subject to discrimination, file a complaint with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
  • Be informed and responsible
    There are scores of tools at your fingertips to help you evaluate the loan offers you receive from various lenders. We have assembled many of these in our Help Center. Take advantage of these and weigh your options and long-term implications before signing up for particular loan. 

Will originators use it?

The first question that came to my mind is would a high-quality originator use this?  I can’t imagine a Brian Brady spending his days blindly filling out GFE’s to ghosts who may or may not work with him.  It is feasible that a consumer gets upwards of 20-30 offers on a quote or more (it’s not restricted).  What is going to make Brian Brady use his time for a small chance win when he has a million other strategies that will result in higher close rates?  Knowing Brian he will find a way to succeed with this platform, leverage administrative resources of find a way to leverage this marketplace; but what about those who are good but don’t want to fire shots in the dark?

I think that’s the big question to be answered as this marketplace evolves.  Are the consumers getting lower-quality originators because the good ones don’t want to play consumer roulette with GFEs?  It will be interesting to see how it plays out as the marketplace evolves. 

A big step in the right direction

The online “lead” model has been broken since its inception and has caused irreparable harm to not only countless consumers but to the image of the industry as a whole.  People who bought and sold private data across convoluted networks of lead brokers abused people’s trust that the lead form they completed would be a great offer from 1 of 4 lenders.  This clearly has not worked.  Zillow puts the power in the consumer’s hands.  Now they can shop from hundreds of offers at their discretion from behind the Zillow wall of privacy which is certainly a step in the right direction; now the question is - will the best in our industry use it?

What do you think?

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4 out 5 homeowners in my state used stated income

So that’s comforting.  According to mortgage data made available by the federal reserve bank of New York 4 out of 5 homeowners in my zip code state who secured their property with an Alt-A loan used stated income to qualify for their mortgage.  Actually it’s 83%.  And 72% of the loans are ARM loans. That is a jaw-dropping statistic, is it not???  Luckily only about 3% are due to reset in the next 12 months.  So we’ve got some time until the bottom drops out of my zip state.

This is the problem people.  80% of folks in my typical state, California, zip code bought their home with stated income.  Max out the loan limits, offer modifications, expand FHA, make Fannie and Freddie buy more and leverage their capital.  Guess what?  It doesn’t matter!  Folks in these areas can’t afford their homes.  Unless you are planning on forgiving the mortgage debt you are not going to save folks from these exploding mortgages, period, end of story.

So, how many people stated their income in your zip state? 

Update: Thanks to commenter Robert for pointing out that these numbers are for the state, not just my zip code.  While I’ve been accused of using that fact to “spin” my story (also in the comments) I believe it is far scarier that the entire state is built on stated-income loans and not just an outlying, over-priced zip code in Orange County.  Now I’m truly convinced that we’re in for much more pain.  If 4 out of 5 people are using non-traditional mortgage products and 3 out of 4 people are using ARMs what are they going to qualify for when those ARMs reset and the universe of non-traditional loan products is infinitesimally smaller. 

P.S. If you’re a mortgage originator this could be the ultimate farming tool.  Check out ARMs due to reset in the next 12 months.  Get farm packs from title in those zips with >75% reset rate and cross your fingers people have equity.  Free marketing advice - just like that.  You’re welcome.

Hat tip to Matt at Inman for the link.

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Foreclosure Machine

The New York Times has a story about the abuses of the foreclosure system that have become overly-apparent in the deluge of foreclosure activity that has followed the wave of subprime mortgage ARM-loan resets. This is a long article, but an important read for any of you that are personally facing foreclosure or have friends or family that are in the process.

The most important part of the article is the focus on the impact of “foreclosure mills” and the fees tacked on during the foreclosure process that are the responsibility of the borrower. If you are going through the process do not take what the lender or servicer says at face value. Get some help, step back from the process, and question anything that seems “off”.

From the New York Times “Foreclosure Machine”:

The reality is very different. Behind the scenes in these dramas, a small army of law firms and default servicing companies, who represent mortgage lenders, have been raking in mounting profits. These little-known firms assess legal fees and a host of other charges, calculate what the borrowers owe and draw up the documents required to remove them from their homes.

As the subprime mortgage crisis has spread, the volume of the business has soared, and firms that handle loan defaults have been the primary beneficiaries. Law firms, paid by the number of motions filed in foreclosure cases, have sometimes issued a flurry of claims without regard for the requirements of bankruptcy law, several judges say.

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Banks are still fueling the fire

God bless the account executives for banks that have put me on their rate sheet and promo distribution email lists without my permission. Without their blatant spamming of my email account (I guess they assume that since they read Blown Mortgage that I must be interested in their product offering) I would never come across these gems.

This email that I am about to share is overly typical. It shows you in black and white that the conflict of interest of sales vs. sensible lending is alive and well even in the midst of a underwriting tightening. Bank account executives who need to make their numbers push the most aggressive of their underwriting guidelines to their brokers in the hopes of winning loans. They allude to fraud, they promote the idea of “getting away with” fraudulent information on loan applications. They push the most aggressive (and least common-sense) of all of their loan products.

The mortgage mess will not get better until these practices are cleaned up. Big banks - are you listening? If you want to protect yourself from future write-downs you may want to look at what type of business your sales agents are drumming up.

This one from a Wachovia rep but it could be any of the big banks on any given day. And pardon the spelling, we’re not always dealing with rocket scientists here:

Subject:
NO MINIMUM TRADE LINES - NO SCORES - JUMBO CASHOUT STATED 620 - INNER FAMILY TRANSFERS

WHAT WACHOVIA’S PORTFOLIO CAN DO FOR YOU………….

620 FICO STATED WAGE EARNER – 80 LTV – CASHOUT

620 STATED FIXED INCOME – 80 LTV CASHOUT

STATED OPTIONS ARMS – UP TO 90 LTV PURCHASE OR RATE AND TERM ( 700 FICO )

INERFAMILY TRANSFERS – 70 LTV

FIXED RATE OPTION ARMS

100% GIFT FUNDS – NO GIFT LETTER NEEDED

30% GIFT OF EQUITY

JUMBO STATED CASHOUT – NO ADDS

LLC LOANS

BROKERS AND REALTORS LOANS

90 DAYS OFF MLS ( 60 DAYS BY EXCEPTION)

NO MINIMUM TRADE LINES

NO MINIMUM FICO SCORES 75 LTV

NO CREDIT OK

NO LIMIT TO AMOUNT OF PROPERTIES

WE NEVER AS FOR 4506T

STATED NON OWNER CASHOUT 70 LTV

FOREIGN NATIONALS TO 70 LTV – ONLY NEED VALID PASSPORT

CO BORROWER DOES NOT NEED SOC SEC NUMBER – 80 LTV STATED

Why do account executives push the shady aspects of their guidelines?

“We never ask for a 4506T” implies that income will not be checked on stated income loans. That is pretty much an open invitation to over-state income because there is no recourse for the lender to request tax returns on the individual. The 4506T lets lenders order tax returns from the IRS on the borrower. These are usually executed only if the loan goes bad as part of QA to find out what went wrong with the loan.

Of course, if the 4506T is materially different from the income on the loan application there could be reprecussions against the loan officer (either retail or broker) for a fraudulent loan application.

Brokers and Realtor Loans

Many banks are now eliminating stated income loans for brokers and realtors as conflict of interest loans. Not only is it likely that the broker or realtor making less this year; but the fact that they know how to “work the system” by over-stating income and assets makes them particularly high risks when it comes to financing. By highlighting (and these were highlighted in rainbow colors in the original email) these nuances the account executive is telegraphing the ability of Realtors and Brokers to utilize this loop-hole to secure their financing (no matter how legitimate it is).

I could go on - but most of those “highlights” scare me to death. If loans are still be underwritten with some of those guidelines we are going to continue to see poor vintage quality for 2008. This of course pushes out the time horizon of recovery as these loans will no doubt go bad at a higher rate than conforming or fully-documented loans. Until banks stop pushing the edge and start promoting reasonable and responsible lending practices by all parties (and not leaving suggestive invitations for fraud and malfeasance) we won’t be able as an industry and a country to put this housing crisis behind us.

Is it just me or is this type of advertising bad for our industry?

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