Blown Mortgage » Market Update

Mortgage Applications Rising Or Falling Who Is Lying

Andrew — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:55:25 +0000

We live in the age of information. That is good and it is bad. It is good because you can get information from a great variety of sources and have the choice of seeing the world from a number of perspectives. The bad news is that you really need to get your information from a variety of sources because it is hard to know who to trust or who got the story right.

An example of this occurred last Wednesday when we received conflicting reports. The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage loan applications were up 16.1% for the week ending August 7 in relation to the same week last year. This news item seemed feasible because there has been an increase in the home sales in the second quarter in 39 states. Other figures also seemed to support this with mortgage refinancing accounting for 52.3% OF mortgage applications and adjustable rate mortgage applications also rose by 0.4%.

On the other hand, Reuters saw the situation in a completely different light by focusing on a different perspective of the situation. Reuters looked at a week over week seasonally adjusted decline of 3.5% which is not exactly the good news the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. Reuters cites the increase in interest rates as the reason for the drop coupled with the current 9.4% unemployment rate which is keeping homebuyers shy and cautions because of the economic climate.

So who is right? Are mortgage rates rising or dropping? The answer is that both are right, they just are focusing on different data to express their opinion. It is left to you to decide what argument is more compelling.

The Mortgage Bankers Association chose to compare this last week with the same week last year while Reuters analyzed the behavior of the market week over week.

To illustrate how this can affect our view of the situation look at these mortgage figures. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the cost to borrow on a 30 year fixed rate at 5.38% a rise of 0.21 percentage from the previous week. The lowest interest rate or cost to purchase a mortgage hit an all time low of 4.61% in the end of March. If you look at these figures it does seem like things are going rather badly and that the Mortgage Market is falling.
However if you compare this week’s interest rate with last year’s in the same week you see that last year the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was a the hair rising rate of 6.57%! A far cry from the 5.38% we now have.

So are we rising or falling? We are both it just depends what point of reference you choose.

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Housing prices sink as underwater number rises

Constantine von Hoffman — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:24:38 +0000

Two reports out say if you’re thinking of buying, wait. The prices are going to continue to drop. The reason they offer are the same: Continuing increases in the number of homes worth less than their current mortgages.

Zillow reports that 23% of US mortgage holders owed more than their homes were worth in the second quarter of this year. This number is challenged, but not in a good way, by Deutsche Bank which says it’s actually 26%.

Both numbers are a stark contrast to recent upbeat spins on real estate news. National Association of Realtors report that pending home sales rose for a fifth straight month in June. (Remember, the NAR’s last chief economist admitted lying about his numbers.) And the most recent Case-Schiller numbers which were widely misreported as showing a price increase in May.

While the Zillow report makes the relatively sure prediction that underwater mortgages will increase to 30% by mid-2010, DB goes all in and says it will be 48% by 2011.

This will further decrease prices as it increase the amount of housing for sale. There were 3.8 million homes for sale in June which take 9.4 months to sell at the current pace of transactions, and those numbers are from the ever-optimistic NAR.

The number of homes for sale doesn’t (and perhaps can’t) include the huge number of shadow homes out there. These are homes being kept off the market by banks, investors and individual owners waiting for prices to improve before putting them on the market. “If” prices continue to descend look to these folks to hit the market in a big way as they try to get anything back on their investments. This, of course, will further depress the price of homes. That’s a helluva catch, that Catch-22.

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Will Jumbo Loan Refinancing Stage A Comeback

Andrew — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 18:41:50 +0000

Will Jumbo Loan Refinancing Stage A Comeback
It is hard to feel bad for millionaires and billionaires when there is enough misery going about in the real estate market to keep everyone in tears.

However there is no denying that foreclosures have respected neither class nor wallet size with jumbo mortgages being shredded with foreclosures all over the place in what some have called the million dollar home massacre. Houses that only some months ago were priced at $3 million are now struggling to be sold at $1 million with some streets having dozens of luxury home on sale.

Has the time for large mortgages on luxury homes come to a sudden end?
Although this sector is feeling the flak as much as any other sector there might be light at the end of the tunnel for jumbo loans. Why should I care you might ask? Well as the saying goes rich women (and men) are only pitied by their psychologists but the health of jumbo mortgages might be a serious indicator of the health of the economy as a whole which is kind of interesting to all of us.

To illustrate this, note how the largest jumbo lenders are Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. The share of the total mortgage market dropped from 14.3% in 2007 to 4.4% in the last quarter of 2008. For some companies the percentage of their portfolio invested in jumbo mortgages is even higher, take for instance ING Direct, 40% of their mortgages are jumbo mortgages. In the U.S the jumbo mortgage market alone was worth $100 billion last year, now that is important to all of us if we are part of the economy, which like it are not we are.

So what is the news for this important sector of the housing industry?

Up to now the drop in interest rates that lower cost loans were enjoying hadn’t really affected jumbo mortgages as banks and lending institutions clammed in shock and made jumbo mortgages expensive and very difficult to obtain. But interest rates are predicted to drop for this sector making it easier to buy a house worth $1 million or more as interest rates drop at more affordable levels as banks view them as a better and better asset for their portfolio.

The interest rates are still much higher than complying mortgages (complying as in loans guaranteed by the a federal mortgage agency). For example jumbo loan interest rates is now at 6.63% in comparison to the 5.07% for a conforming mortgage.
Interest rates drop but requirements tighten.

Even though jumbo mortgages will be cheaper they won’t necessarily be easier to get. Banks have been bruised by the credit crisis and are very careful who they lend to. Jumbo borrowers will have to Glatt Kosher in order to qualify for a jumbo mortgage with credit scores in the neighborhood of 700, 20% minimum downpayment and 3 to 6 months payments in savings.

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Is Trust Returning to the Mortgage Industry?

Jay Hammond — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:12:57 +0000

“The economy is based on trust,” said Dean Johnson, associate professor of finance at Michigan Technological University in Houghton, Michigan.

In situations like the recent housing bubble, or even the stock market collapse of 1929, where markets were driven by debt and fueled by the false expectation that values can only increase, trust can be a very fragile thing.

“One little blip and everything started to unwind,” Johnson said. “The particulars are different, but the basics are familiar.”

Trust, however, seems to be coming back, according to Johnson. If people are cautious and not spending money, the government and financial industry must take action to encourage capital liquidity. During the first half of 2009, this is exactly what they have been doing. And if the effects have not been as immediate as some would like and others needed, at least their efforts are beginning to take effect.

Why does Johnson believe trust is returning? He points to the Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures investors’ expectations of how volatile the stock markets will be. The VIX reached all-time highs in 2008.

“People think of it as the fear gauge,” Johson explained. “it’s encouraging that the VIX, though still high be historical standards, is down about 60 percent from what it was at its peak in November.”

Other, more recent, signs that trust is being rebuilt in the American housing/real estate markets and the financial industry include:

USA Today reports that while the construction market remains weak the housing market may be improving slightly. Residential construction reportedly dropped to the lowest level since December 1995. Pending homes sales increased slightly in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Proposed legislation to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency is making progress at the federal level, according to the Washington Post. The Post reports that the Treasury Department’s proposal for a new federal agency to consolidate the plethora of state and federal regulators responsible for overseeing the lending industry arrived on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
At the end of June, Fannie Mae, which is still under the conservatorship of the federal government, reported its mortgage portfolio grew at a compound annual rate of more than 35 percent in May. A report from Dow Jones appearing in the Wall Street Journal indicates a large jump in the issuing of mortgage-backed securities offset continued rises in single-family and multi-family mortgage delinquencies.

Notes of caution, however, are also being heard. Yale University economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Schiller home-price index, Robert Schiller told Bloomberg: “At this point, people are thinking the fall is over. The market is predicting the declines are over.” At the same time he is “not optimistic that we’re going to see any sharp rebound.”

Johnson agrees with Schiller.

“It’s still a risky market,” Johnson stresses. “This is the first time in history that you’ve been better off if you’d put your money under a mattress 10 years ago. But hopefully, this indicates that the financial markets are returning to normal.”

Of course this doesn’t mean the housing market or the financial industry will be returning to the halcyon days of pre-mortgage crisis days anytime soon. It doesn’t matter how badly investors, bankers, consumers, lenders, the government or the world at large want it.

“There’s no easy fix,” Johnson concluded. “We have to take our medicine. It took 20 years to create the over-leverage and it will take time to undo that.”

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No “green shoots” in employment

Morgan — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:52:15 +0000

Unemployment rose in nearly every state in the nation in May, with many reaching record unemployment levels not seen since 1976. So much for green shoots. If 70% of our economy is driven by consumer spending, and more and more consumers are out of work, how exactly are we coming out of this mess? Where is the driver going to come from? Even with the government doing everything it can to keep the printing presses pumping out money there isn’t a viable way to easily replace that massive consumer spending. I’m no economist, but the common sense in me says that an umemployed consumer doesn’t spend like one with a job and a house-sized ATM.

The top hardest hit states in terms of unemployment are: Michigan, Oregon, South Carolina, Rhode Island and California. (Image courtesy of CNN.com)

When you’ve got the nation’s most populous state in the top 5 in unemployment, a budget deficit of $20+ billion and new taxes going in left and right (not to mention a whole slew of Option ARM resets coming down the pike) it’s rather silly to be talking of recovery at this stage in the game.

What do you think?

Some more images of doom from CNN:

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California 50 days from government meltdown

Morgan — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:54:53 +0000

California has 50 days until the government melts down under the pressure of the $24.3 billion budget gap. That according to the state’s controller, John Chiang. And the problem isn’t getting any better. State revenues were off nearly 18% in May the state was off an additional billion dollars from the current budget. Schwarzenegger has publicly refused to take a high-interest, last-minute loan saying that the financing charges would cripple the state going forward. Without deep cuts the government may simply run out of money as early as late July. Schwarzenegger has said that he would rather see the government shut down then be held hostage by a crushing loan to close the gap.

While Californians like myself have had to suffer through tax increases in all sorts of areas (including a ridiculous sales tax) the revenues continue to fall sharply as property values crater and businesses fold under the economic pressure of the housing-fueled meltdown. This points to the conundrum that law makers are facing. There are no sources of revenue to prop up the spending levels that were fueled by the burgeoning housing market. Reluctant to make the needed cuts to get a balanced budget, the legislature is instead steering the state towards bankruptcy.

From Reuters and Yahoo:

California’s government risks a financial “meltdown” within 50 days in light of its weakening May revenues unless Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers quickly plug a $24.3 billion budget gap, the state’s controller said on Wednesday.

Underscoring the severity of California’s cash crisis, Controller John Chiang, who has previously warned the state’s government risks running out of cash without a budget deal, said revenues in May fell by $1.14 billon, or 17.7 percent, from a year earlier.

Additionally, the revenues of the government of the most populous U.S. state fell short of estimates in Schwarzenegger’s budget plan by $827 million, Chiang said.

He warned California’s state government is speeding toward a financial disaster unless officials act urgently to balance its books.

“Without immediate solutions from the governor and legislature, we are less than 50 days away from a meltdown of state government,” Chiang said in a statement.

Image credit: AFP/Getty Images/File

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Meet the Biggest Mortgage Originators & Servicers in the U.S.

Jay Hammond — Tue, 12 May 2009 17:29:44 +0000

The mortgage industry changed in the last year. Most companies have found themselves under significant financial pressure. Some mortgage firms have disappeared. Others have grown and expanded their market share by acquiring struggling competitors.

The number of mortgage loan originations has also been on the rise, allowing lenders to add to the growth from mergers and acquisitions. First quarter 2009 production among American mortgage lenders increased by 73 percent over the fourth quarter 2008, based on earnings data analyzed by MortgageDaily.com. As a result, there have been some changes to the lists of top originators and top servicers helping consumers achieve the American dream of homeownership.

Wells Fargo is the nation’s biggest lender. First-quarter originations more than doubled from the fourth quarter level. Volume, including Wachovia Corp. was up 22 percent over the same quarter in 2008 – prior t the merger of the two banks. Well Fargo is the second largest servicer in the nation. Despite this, Market Intelligence Center reports that Wells Fargo shares are trading at or near a 52-week low, however, the recent offering of 341 million share of common Wells Fargo raised more than $8.6 billion.

“We’re known and admired for our conservative financial position, and a disciplined acquisition strategy that will not change,” said John Stumph, Wells Fargo President and CEO in October 2008. “In that regard, we look forward with great anticipation and confidence to completing our merger with Wachovia Corporation by year end. The union of of our two companies with provide compelling value for all our stakeholders, including Wachovia’s team members, combining the industry’s best in service and best in sales, an unbeatable combination that will create the nation’s premier coast-to-coast financial services company.”

More recently, Ed Terpening wrote on the Wells Fargo – Wachovia Blog (May 8, 2009) that “We knew from the start there’d be an awkward period between the time the merger started and the time you saw results. [....] As John said, we’re taking 2-3 years to complete this transition because we want to do what’s right for you, our customers. No sense in rushing this and making a mess in the process.”

The merger is apparently already yielding positive results, because the combined company is leading the nation in mortgage originations.

Another acquisition that has paid off in growth has been MetLife’s acquisition of most of First Horizon National Corp.’s mortgage operations. MetLife business more than doubled from the fourth quarter, landing the company at Number 8 in originations. First Horizon’s mortgage operations weren’t MetLife’s only acquisition during 2008. MetLife also acquired EverBank Reverse Mortgage LLC and selected assets from First Tennessee Bank in 2008.

Bank of America Corp. (BoA) topped the list of the biggest servicers. The company also saw originations rise by 79 percent, making it the second biggest originator in the country. BoA’s acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corp. last year has not paid off with originations from the most recent quarter down 20 percent from combined production a year ago.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third biggest originator and servicer, also declined despite improving activity by 30 percent over the fourth quarter. Fundings were 44 percent below the level JPMorgan and Washington Mutual Bank reported in the first quarter of 2008 before their merger.

The 10 biggest originators during the first quarter 2009 were:

With a total combined portfolio exceeding $140 billion, the 10 biggest servicers as of March 31, 2009 were:

JPMorgan Chase, MetLife and US Bancorp were among the banks recently identified by regulators as not needing any additional capital. Only MetLife had not previously received funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, DailyFinance reports.

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Declining home values sink one-fifth of homeowners

Jay Hammond — Wed, 06 May 2009 21:31:39 +0000

U.S. home values fell for the ninth consecutive quarter during the first three months of 2009 leaving one in five American homeowners with negative equity in their homes. The first quarter Zillow Home Value Index fell to $182,378, a decline of 14.2 percent over the same period in 2008. The last time the market was at this level was the first quarter of 2004.

Of the 161 metropolitan areas covered by the Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, the five best performing markets are:

Fayetteville, NC, where home values increase 14.4 percent to an average value of $118,121
Oklahoma City, OK, where home values increased 5.1 percent to an average of $118,446
Binghamton, NY, where home values increased 2.5 percent to an average of $114,604
Jacksonville, NC, where home values also increased 2.5 percent to an average of $138,881
Cumberland, MD where home values increased 2.3 percent to an average of $82,174

The five worst performing markets were all in California, although the decline has slowed somewhat in some locations. For example, the Zillow Home Value Index fell 18.9 percent in the Los Angeles metro area and 18 percent in San Diego. Both declines as less than the drops experienced during the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Unfortunately, the value index in both markets remain more than 30 percent lower than previous peak markets.

The five metropolitan areas posting the worst performances are:

Salinas, CA where home values declined 36.6 percent to and average of $301,793 (a level not seen since the second quarter of 2000)
Redding, CA, where values dropped 34.1 percent to and average of $197,193
Stockton, CA, where home values fell 32.4 percent to an average of $175, 484
Madera, CA, where values declined 32.1 percent to ad average of $151,392
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA, where home values dropped 31.8 percent to an average of $235,385.

As previously reported, pending home sales increased slightly during March. A Zillow survey of homeowner sentiment however, reveals that potential sellers appear to be holding back waiting for the housing market to show signs of recovery. According the the Zillow survey, 31 percent of homeowners are at least somewhat likely to put their homes on the market during the next 12 months if they felt the real estate market was improving. Of those willing to consider putting their homes on the market, 71 indicate increasing home sales in their neighborhoods would be evidence of a turnaround in the market.

“Slowing declines in select markets are a bright spot or, at least, what passes for one given current market conditions,” said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow vice president of data and analytics. “Unfortunately, given the magnitude of the current rates of decline, we’re still many months away from a bottom even as depreciation slows. Moreover, the additional information we have this quarter on ’shadow inventory,’ with one-third of homeowners indicating they would like to put their home on the market if conditions improve, confirms our earlier fears that a bottom in home values could be quite protracted. By our calculations, this could translate into as many as 20 million homes that could seep into the market as prices stabilize, maintaining a constant stream of supply that far outpaces demand, thus keeping prices flat. I’m doubtful that we’ll see the bottom until 2010, and thereafter it’s increasingly clear that we’re likely to have a long bottom before we see meaningful recovery in home values.”

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Foreclosure activity sets records in 1Q 2009

Jay Hammond — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:14:37 +0000

One in every 159 U.S. housing units have received a foreclosure notice already this year. Foreclosure filings during the first quarter of 2009 increased 24 percent over the same quarter in 2008, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. The pace also appears to be increasing with 17 percent more default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions reported in March than in February. March 2009 saw 46 percent more foreclosure filings than March 2008. Both the March and first quarter 2009 totals were the highest on record since the report was first published in January 2005.

“In the month of March we saw a record level of foreclosure activity, the number of households that received a foreclosure filing was more than 12 percent higher than the next highest month on record. Since much of this activity was n new foreclosure actions, it suggests that many lenders and servicers were holding off on executing foreclosures due to industry moratoria and legislative delays,” said James J. Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac, the leading online marketplace for foreclosed properties and publisher of the report. “It’s also likely the drop in REO activity can be attributed to these processing delays, rather than to any other foreclosure prevention programs currently in place. It’s very likely we’ll see the number of REOs increase again now that most of the moratoria have been lifted.”

More than 341,000 properties received some type of foreclosure filing in March. Hardest hit were property owners in Nevada, Arizona, California, Florida and Illinois. Foreclosure activity in those five states alone accounted for nearly 60 percent of the first quarter total with 479,516 properties receiving foreclosure notices. California alone counted for nearly 29 percent of the nation’s total with 230,915 properties receiving foreclosure filings during the the first quarter of 2009.

One in every 27 housing units in Nevada received a foreclosure filing during the first quarter of 2009 making the state the national leader in foreclosure activity. This is five time the national average. According to the report, 41,296 Nevada properties received foreclosure filings during the first quarters, up 19 percent over the previous month’s total and nearly 111 percent from the same quarter last year.

The state with the second highest foreclosure rate during the first quarter was Arizona where one out of every 54 housing units received a foreclosure filing. California was a close third with one in every 58 housing units in the state receiving a foreclosure notice during the first three months of 2009. Despite a 12 percent decrease in foreclosure filings from the final quarter of 2008, Florida reported the second highest number of foreclosure filings with 119,220. Florida, where one out of every 73 housing units received a foreclosure filing, posted the fourth highest foreclosure rate for the quarter Rounding out the top ten states with the highest rate of foreclosure activity were Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Idaho, Utah and Oregon. Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Texas and Virginia round out the list of top ten states reporting the highest foreclosure activity totals.

The one bright spot overall was that the number of bank repossessions (REOs) declined 13 percent from the fourth quarter 2008 level and 3 percent from February 2009 totals.

“On a positive note, it appears that demand is up in some of the harder-hit areas, particularly on bank-owned REO properties that first time homebuyers and investors see as bargains,” Saccacio concluded. “But it’s unlikely that this increased demand will be enough to offset the growing number of foreclosures in the pipeline, accelerated by rising unemployment rates.”

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Changing the jumbo mortgage game

Jay Hammond — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 04:35:50 +0000

Americans are spending less on luxuries these days. That includes luxury houses. The number of jumbo mortgage originations declined an estimated 70 percent nationwide during 2008. The most recent Affluent Market Tracking Study conducted semi-annually by the American Affluence Research Center, reveals that among luxury consumers, plans to purchase a primary residence of a vacation home have declined to record lows and home remodeling plans are only one-half of what they were a year ago.

The affluent are the primary consumers of jumbo and super jumbo mortgage products. Although the jumbo mortgage market has not been as widely discussed as the conforming mortgage market in the current crisis, it is undergoing significant changes. April alone has seen one established player leaving the jumbo mortgage field while another joins it.

A jumbo mortgage is one that exceeds the loan limits set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The limit changes annually for mortgages on single-family homes. Interest rates on jumbo mortgages are generally higher than on conforming (those within the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac limits) but vary in similar ways. Historically, jumbo mortgage rates exceeded conforming loan rates by 20 basis points, according to First Internet Bank of Indiana (First IB). Recently, that gap has widened to as much as 200 basis points or 2 percentage points.

Leaving the jumbo mortgage game is Thornburg Mortgage Inc., which announced earlier this month that the company planned to seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Santa Fe-based Thornburg was the second-largest independent mortgage company in the U.S. at one time. The Wall Street Journal reports that Thornburg’s financial problems stem from the collapse of the market for mortgage-backed securities rather than more familiar collapse of sub-prime mortgages. The company’s assets, other than mortgage servicing rights, will be sold or liquidated. The mortgage servicing rights, which were granted as security for various financing agreements with lenders including JPMorgan Chase Funding, Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Limited, Credit Suisse Securities, Credit Suisse International, the Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS AG, Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc. and Greenwich Capital Derivatives, Inc., will be transferred to the creditors pursuant to the agreements. At least one of these creditors, Credit Suisse, is seeking to sell more than $1.5 billion in mortgage securities previously owned by Thornburg Mortgage, according to Bloomberg. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) are reportedly planning to liquidate the collateral they receive from Thornburg.

Thornburg Mortgage was founded in 1993 and had clients in all 50 states. It is a separate entity from Thornburg Investments which is also owned by Garret Thornburg.

“Thornburg Mortgage,Inc. Has been through a very difficult two years as it has tried to survive this tumultuous mortgage marketplace and we have done everything humanly possible over the past year to try to bring a satisfactory resolution to our situation,” Larry Goldstone, Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. President and CEO. “The sad fact is that the credit crisis has turned out to be far bigger than Thornburg Mortgage, and we could not overcome its challenges. We gave it our best shot against very difficult odds.”

Joining the jumbo mortgage game is the First Internet Bank (First IB) of Indiana.

“We are confident there is unmet demand for jumbo loans in today’s market, particularly sine the housing stability plan recently announced does not include relief for these borrowers,” said David B. Becker, President and CEO at First IB. “We are filling a void with an attractive jumbo mortgage loan product at a highly competitive rate. Of course, we are going to scrutinize these applications carefully, borrowers still need to be credit worthy and the property value must be sustainable.”

The jumbo mortgage loan product First IB introduced earlier this week is an adjustable-rate mortgage carrying a fixed rate as low as 5.375 APR with no points for five years. With $543 million in assets and customers in all 50 states, First IB is the first state-chartered, FDIC-insured institution operating solely via the Internet. First IB, an Equal Housing Lender, also offers conforming loans and home equity loans along with other financial products.

There is some debate whether the decline in jumbo mortgage originations is the result of declining demand or the increasing reluctance of lenders to make such substantial loans without government backing. In practice, why jumbo mortgages are difficult to find and obtain is not as important as what the contraction of the market reveals about the mortgage industry.

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