Author Archive for Morgan

NAR’s Yun Spews Same Ole Bulls***t

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Larry Yun of the NAR spin-machine is back at it today saying that recession “isn’t in the cards - no matter how you look at it” and calling for home prices to recover across the country in the second half of this year.  How this guy is a high-level economist at the leading trade organization representing homebuyers and sellers is beyond me.  Good thing not too many people outside the Realtor pale take him seriously.  

From the NAR’s release of Yun’s economic and housing forecast (excuse me while I puke):

“There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions
are ripe for buyers,” he added. “Those are the facts, plain and simple.”

As for a recession, it’s not happening, Yun said. “A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It’s not in the cards - no matter how you look at it.”

Larry, as for the plain-and-simple facts do you care to comment on the graph below?  How does this tidal wave of resets in a negative equity environment fit in to your ‘08 recovery?  How do tightened underwriting guidelines and the elimination of high-LTV purchase loans and limited documentation loan types fit in?  Now everyone buying needs 10-20% (I’m generalizing here) down and fully documented income and we’re supposed to see a “swift” recovery?  Come on!  

Someone in Congress should haul this guy in front of a Senate committee and make him testify to this BS under oath and then jail him for perjury, seriously.

 

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Chase Wholesale Eliminates 2nd Mortgages

According to reps from the bank Chase Wholesale is eliminating second mortgage products from its product offering.  All loans need to be registered/submitted by end of business tomorrow.  There has been wide concern and speculation about the value of second mortgage loan portfolios held by the big banks with the precipitous decline of housing prices nationwide.  Many of the second mortgages issued over the last two to three years in bubble areas are now essentially unsecured.

You can’t blame Chase for making this move as the risk/reward ratio just isn’t there for them.  No word on the retail channel.  If you have any info let me know and I’ll update the post.

Update: Confirmed from numerous tipsters (thanks!)

An email from reps:

Good Morning,

First and foremost I would like to thank you for the business you have sent
and I appreciate the opportunity to have worked with you. Unfortunately,
given the market conditions Chase Home Finance has made the decision to
eliminate the Home Equity Channel. Effective end of day Friday May 16, 2008
Chase Home Equity will no longer accept applications for home equity
products. All new applications/registrations must be received by end of
day on Friday (5-16-08) and all pipeline deals must fund by 7/15/08. Rate
lock extensions will not be available.

 

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Mortgage rates down as inflation fears ease

Mortgage interest rates dropped as fears of inflation eased.  Adjustable rate mortgages were helped the most.  The Fed’s aggressive posture and track record for action (i.e. Bear Stearns, liquidity injections, rate cuts), and led by stability of the dollar and tamer-than-expected inflation data all helped the cause.

From Market Watch on mortgage rates:

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.01% for the week ending May 15, down from last week’s 6.05% average, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. The mortgage averaged 6.15% a year ago.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.57% this week, down from 5.67% last week. The ARM averaged 5.89% a year ago. And 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.18% this week, down from last week’s 5.29% average. The ARM averaged 5.48% a year ago.
To obtain the rates, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 5-year ARM required payment of an average 0.6 point. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage required an average 0.5 point and the 1-year ARM required an average 0.7 point. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.
“Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated in a speech on May 13 that the Fed stands ready to continue to add liquidity to the markets,” Nothaft said in a news release. “On the same day, San Francisco Fed bank president Janet Yellen added that she anticipates inflation will slow as commodity prices level off in the second half of the year.”
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Countrywide Subject to FTC Probe

Countrywide, the poster-child for housing bubble lending greed is facing an inquiry by the FTC regarding it’s lending practices.  The probe, requested by New York Senator Schumer, asks the FTC to review the lending practices of the mortgage giant.  Renewed interest in the business practices are a result of numerous lawsuits against delinquent mortgage-holders being withdrawn for inaccurate or potentially fraudulent evidence against the defendants.

Countrywide admitted in court that it had re-created late payment notices to mortgage-holders who had never actually received the original notice.

None of this should come as a surprise to those following Countrywide.  The company has a long history of shady business practices from allegations of routing prime borrowers to subprime products, inappropriate sales incentives to push borrowers to higher cost loans, inaccurate accounting of current mortgage balances and predatory lending by it’s retail team and wholesale channels.  

From Market Watch on the Countrywide FTC investigation:

Schumer made the request in a letter to FTC Chairman William Kovacic, citing “cases in multiple states in which Countrywide attorneys were reportedly forced to withdraw motions that incorrectly contended that debtors were delinquent on payments.”
In addition, a federal judge in Los Angeles has ruled that besieged mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. must face a shareholder lawsuit against 14 current and former top executives and board members that alleges the company engaged in risky lending practices that led to its collapse this fall.

“It defies reason, given the entirety of the allegations, that these committee members could be blind to widespread deviations from the underwriting policies and standards being committed by employees at all levels,” wrote Judge Mariana Pfaelzer of Federal District Court in Los Angeles.

Schumer raised concerns Wednesday about the lender’s admission in court that it had sometimes “re-created” delinquency or foreclosure letters that were never actually sent to delinquent borrowers.

Countrywide has faced multiple lawsuits nationwide alleging it fabricated or altered documents, intimidated borrowers and assessed illegal or exorbitant fees in foreclosure or bankruptcy proceedings.

 

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The Story the Press Should be Telling

Here’s a story the press should be covering more: housing affordability is rocketing back towards sustainable levels.  Below is a graph from the NAR on housing affordability and you can see as the market tanks homes are becoming more affordable than they have been at any point in the last 4 years.  They’re also b-lining for a return to more historically affordable levels such as during the 1990’s.  

We’ve seen 7 straight months of improvement and here’s hoping for more.  While it sucks as a homeowner to see your value tank hard (trust me I know) it is the only hope for the housing market recovery that everyone is trying to eyeball right now.  Only affordable homes that naturally increase demand will stop the free-fall.  It doesn’t take rocket science to figure this out but the sooner we can get to that affordability the level the sooner the bottom will begin to firm up.

When we talk about the market plunging here at Blown Mortgage we don’t do it to lament the end of the good times - we do it to celebrate the (hopefully) near return of sane and sustainable growth in the market based on sound economic fundamentals.  The press should cover the affordability issue more closely - it’s the one thing I’m really cheering for here and is the silver lining of the carnage currently in the market.

 The text in the box says:

 

February reading of 135.2 was above January’s 131.3.  These readings indicate a family with the February median gross income of $59,967 could afford a maximum mortgage balance of $209,711 which is higher than the median house price of $193,900 for February.  As this graph shows, the decline in house prices over the last 12 months has improved affordability.

 

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Greenspan: Bottom in 2009, Sentiment Turning?

Alan Greenspan, the former Fed reserve chief who many blame for the housing meltdown told audiences in Asia that he saw the bottom of the housing downturn as hitting sometime in early 2009 proving once again you can take the bull out of monetary policy but not out of the man.  Greenspan’s remarks come as market sentiment seems to be improving over the dour mood the of the past few months.  

According to Research Recap Fitch reported that they anticipate 80% of all subprime-related writedowns have been booked by the banks and institutions holding subprime-backed assets.  

From Research Recap on Fitch’s analysis of subprime writedowns:

Further subrime-related ratings bank downgrades are likely to be minimal as global banks have already written down more than 80% of their losses from subprime mortgage assets, Fitch Ratings says in a Special Report.

Fitch estimates total market losses from subprime mortgage assets at $400 billion, though estimates may be as high as $550 billion, depending on the method of calculation used.

In addition Freddie Mac posted a less-than-expected loss for the quarter on the back of the credit mess, suggesting to some that the GSE’s revenue will be adequate to help power through losses related to the housing mess.

From Market Watch on Freddie Mac’s quarterly results:

Freddie Mac said it lost $151 million, or 66 cents a share, in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $133 million, or 46 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The company said difficult housing- and credit-market conditions were behind a $1.2 billion provision for credit losses taken in the latest quarter.
However, analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had, on average, predicted that Freddie Mac would lose 91 cents a share for the first three months of 2008.

However, the upbeat sentiment belies some difficult truths that still face the market in the coming months and years.   In the same article on the Freddie Mac quarter several disquieting facts were disclosed including the reduction in the capital cushion maintained by the mortgage giant and its admission that the “worst had yet to come” in terms of credit costs charged against it’s existing portfolio.

When that money is raised, Freddie Mac’s federal regulator said it will lower the excess-capital cushion on the company to 15% from 20%, with another cut to 10% after the company completes other steps including completion of registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
“This does not mean we have seen the worst in credit costs, but it does mean that revenue growth will be significantly stronger than the growth in credit costs,” he wrote to clients.
Richard Syron, Freddie Mac’s chief executive, warned investors that the company probably faces more tough times ahead as the housing market remains weak.
“While our expectation is for continued weakness in the housing and economic environment to negatively impact our overall performance through the remainder of this year, we have put Freddie Mac on a better foundation to manage through the current cycle and emerge a successful, long-term competitor,” Syron said in a statement Wednesday.
Moody’s Investors Service, meanwhile, downgraded Freddie Mac’s financial strength rating but affirmed the company’s Aaa senior and all other debt ratings.
Even the Fitch data is a bit of a red herring as the subprime mortgage market only accounts for a total of 20% of the originations currently souring on the books of investors.  A much bigger portion of loans still loom large for investors as resets for Alt-A and other good credit/non-traditional mortgage products grow in the distance.  
So for all the sentiment I think it still comes back to this chart.  When you couple the price declines of the last 18 months with the future prospect of the next tidal wave of resets it is hard to see how anyone can call bottom prior to that wave crashing.
Bottom line - don’t look for the bottom any time soon.
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JP Morgan May Lay-off 4,000 Employees

JP Morgan could cut up to 4,000 jobs as a result of their takeover of Bear Stearns and the continuing mess in the financial markets. About half of those jobs will be replaced by Bear Stearns employees. The other half could be let go as part of a broader cost-cutting measure to ensure adequate liquidity for the company to make it through the market turmoil.

From Private Equity HUB:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) could cut as many as 4,000 of its own employees worldwide as the bank prepares to take on staff from Bear Stearns Cos (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) at the same time it deals with turmoil in financial markets, people familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.

In addition to roughly 2,000 JPMorgan employees who will be replaced by counterparts acquired through its takeover of Bear Stearns, the sources said that an additional 1,000 to 2,000 JPMorgan employees may lose their jobs because of the slowdown in investment banking activity and credit market crisis.

Final decisions dealing with specific employees have not been made, though JPMorgan is expected to decide on market-related cuts by early June, the sources said.

JP Morgan picked up Bear Stearns with a guarantee from the federal government on up to $29 billion in questionable mortgage-backed assets and then led a somewhat clandestine effort to raise $6 billion in capital to maintain adequate liquidity levels.

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Moody’s Warns on Bond Insurers’ Ratings

As we discussed the other day in our post about MBIA’s $2.4 billion quarterly loss, the bond insurers are seemingly sitting on the edge of a cliff waiting for loan performance to deteriorate to a tipping point that pushes these companies in to insolvency. Warren Buffett himself questioned the business models of these bond insurers (PDF) who have taken very ‘thin’ positions in terms of exposure to mortgage risk.

This risk is particularly high in the second-mortgage insurance business as now many second mortgages are essentially non-collateralized loans against properties that are now valued at far less than when the original second-mortgage lien was written.

Moody’s apparently feels the same way as they have issued fresh warnings on the ratings of bond insurers. While this presentation on the bond insurers seems to point to plenty of reasons for concern MBIA is (of course) protesting the warnings.

From Market Watch:

Poor performance of second-lien residential mortgage-backed securities could put pressure on the credit ratings of bond insurers, Moody’s said on Tuesday.

But there are “significant” differences between the subprime second-lien mortgage securities that Moody’s is worried about and the prime second-lien mortgage securities that the bond insurer has guaranteed, MBIA said.
Moody’s also said Tuesday that higher-than-expected losses on these types of securities could affect the amount of capital that some bond insurers need to keep their all-important AAA ratings.
MBIA’s Argument Doesn’t Hold Up
The argument that prime second liens are a much better asset than subprime second mortgages only goes so far. The fact of the matter is that second mortgages in bubble areas are now essentially unsecured loans - no better than a credit card. With prime adjustable rate mortgages yet to reset in earnest these second mortgages have not been put under payment pressure the way that subprime seconds have experienced over the last year-and-a-half. Prime seconds will come under similar pressure in the coming year as prime ARMs begin to reset.
Prime second mortgages, particularly in bubble areas, will face similar performance issues that their subprime counterparts are now facing. While prime borrower’s have a propensity to service there debt better the forces of payment pressure combined with a negative equity environment will exacerbate late pays and defaults on these prime seconds making their performance more similar to subprime seconds than not.
MBIA Gets the Ostrich Award Too

In case they weren’t convincing enough they trot out the accounting rules defense (a la HSBC). Just as laughable and just as dangerous to shareholders.
MBIA countered that it’s unaware of any changes to capital requirements covering the securities it has guaranteed. “Nor do we believe any is warranted based on deal performance or expected losses,” the New York-based company said in a statement.
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HSBC Undervalued Losses by $30 billion

ostrichSo says activist shareholder Knight Vinke who accused the board of undervaluing subprime assets acquired by its purchase of Homecomings Financial.  Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has the angle on HSBC’s rather curious defense.  Rather that standing strong on its accounting standards and portfolio performance the bank simply punted saying that the assets weren’t required to be marked to market because the loans are consumer loans and not mortgages.

Yves cites a Financial Times piece in which Vinke estimates that $23 billion of the potential $30 billion comes from the failing portfolio held by Homecomings Financial.

Knight Vinke, the activist investor, launched a fresh attack on HSBC yesterday, accusing Europe’s biggest bank of flattering its US sub-prime losses by failing to write down $30 billion (£15 billion) worth of mortgage assets.

The broadside came as HSBC revealed a $3.2 billion first-quarter writedown on loans by its US business to poor Americans.

HSBC’s investment bank also took a $2.6 billion writedown on credit investments for the first three months, pushing the group’s total losses on sub-prime to $25 billion…..

Knight Vinke said that HSBC should have been gloomier about its own prospects. The fund manager, which has been agitating for HSBC to sell HFC, said that the group was the only large bank not to make a fair value adjustment on its loans to customers and other banks.

If HSBC accounted for the loans at their market value, they would be worth almost $30 billion less than $1,218 billion book value that the bank ascribes them, Knight Vinke said. Of that loss, about $23 billion comes from HFC. Taking the writedown would have pushed HSBC into a $5 billion loss last year instead of a $24 billion pre-tax profit, the fund manager said.

You’ve got to love a bank that blatantly tells you that while yes, you are technically correct in calculating 10x larger loan-related losses, that they are going to stand by their overly-optimistic estimation on an arcane technicality that allows them to paint whichever reality they choose to accept.

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It’s time to take back the American Dream

It’s time to take back the American Dream.  The American Dream has been repeatedly hijacked by too many people in the name of self-interest to remotely resemble what it looked like when it was first coined back in 1931. It is time to separate home ownership from the American Dream.  Or, more precisely, it is time to separate the home-debtorship from the American Dream.

Somewhere along the way we went sideways and the American Dream went from being synonymous with equal opportunity to being synonymous with material success.  And most of the shift was driven by the crafty marketing folks at your local real estate company, car dealership, big box store and other outlet where you can have a better today by simply financing the future.  It’s time to separate the dream from the debt.

I’m calling out the marketers, the hucksters, the politicians, your elected officials, your history teachers, your real estate agent, your greedy friends and everyone across the country that had their hand in the mutation of the American Dream.  Yeah - you.  The Century 21 marketing department, the NAR and everyone who bastardized the American Dream in an attempt to make a quick buck.  I’m calling out the greedy and ignorant Americans who fell in to the rabbit snare of corporate marketing in attempt to keep up with the Jonses by foolishly leveraging their three-digit FICO score for a new Escalade instead of a decent safety cushion.  I’m calling out anyone who has taken the American Dream and stretched it, rearranged it and put it back together in to an unrecognizable form that only celebrates the material wealth of a country bent on consumption.

How did Housing Get Dragged in to this?

From Wikipedia on the American Dream:

Although wealth is a generally assumed characteristic of the American Dream, there are other aspects of the American Dream that some would argue are more important than the mere accumulation of wealth. Modarres (2007) explains that a major source of wealth and intergenerational transfer of wealth is real estate. Purchasing a home is perhaps the most important investment many Americans will make. With that statement, it can be assumed that the American Dream can be achieved, but can be achieved to its highest value with the investment in real estate.

This is what has been lost in translation.  Americans stopped accumulating real wealth through real estate and started accumulating imaginary wealth (equity) through riding an asset bubble fueled by cheap debt.  Americans haven’t been amassing wealth - quite the opposite - they have been gorging on debt.

The American Dream somewhere got twisted from opportunity to an impulsive need to satisfy our material urges at the expense of sound personal fiscal policy.  Now with the credit markets in shambles, the housing market no longer able to bail us out of our debt-fueled consumption a whole generation is going to learn the hard way that the American Dream is not about two SUV’s in every garage and a turkey in every pot.

Living the American Nightmare

Listen folks the American Dream is no longer about homeownership.  Homeownership is a myth to most people who reside in single family homes.  Many are highly debt-burdened and the declining market has sapped whatever remaining equity they might have had.  Homeowners are not looking at their homes as the pinnacle of the American Dream.  To the contrary many are regarding their under-water McMansion as the American Nightmare - a prison they can’t escape without making some difficult choices that challenge their morals and who they are as responsible citizens.

About a month ago I had numerous people calling me - my friends - who were asking me how bad it would be to walk away from their homes.  Rational, intelligent, college-educated folks looking for a way out of the strangle-hold that is their ridiculous mortgage payment.  Rest assured that they are not living the American Dream - they are handcuffed to a property that isn’t worth the debt it secures and only promises to provide a life-time of payments with little prospect for true ownership.

It’s time to take back the American Dream.

Can you blame them?

So can you blame the homeowners, tied to a sinking debt-anchor, who think about walking away?   They can see the bail out of Bear Stearns, they can see the backing of Wall Street and they wonder aloud, “Where is the relief on Main Street?” And if there will be none they will take matter in to their own hands.  For they are using wisdom of the crowds.  They know that banks and lending institutions will not shut their doors to an entire generation of consumers who’ve forsaken their credit to rid themselves of the mistake of a lifetime.  They are making a calculated gamble that some politician somewhere will come along and rescue them from the effects of credit exhausted in a national spasm of gluttony.  We’re all subprime now.

A Call to Arms

So I’m putting out a call to arms for those of you that still believe in the American Dream. That believe that the American Dream is more about opportunity and less about credit.  A dream that is based on the chance of real, lasting success and wealth, and not the superfluous symbols of wealth flaunted by the Orange County bourgeoisie.  It’s time to take back the American Dream from the NAR, the Century 21’s, the Best Buys and any other company and their marketing department who extols us to just charge it.  The American Dream is not about debt - it’s the antithesis of all of the marketing messages that have been bombarding us during the current credit bubble.

Take a Stand

So take a stand.  Tell people what you think the American Dream means.  Tell them that the American Dream is about opportunity not opulence.  Talk about ownership and fiscal responsibility instead of financing and balance transfers.  Let’s take back the American Dream.  Let’s rescue it from the white-knuckled grasp of credit companies everywhere.  Let’s make the American Dream a reality once again and restore its promise to its rightful place in our hearts and minds.

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