Loan Modifications: Why Is Citigroup Optimistic About Future Loan Delinquencies

Loan modifications seem like a pretty simple concept. You can’t pay your mortgage so the government “encourages” your mortgage provider to give you a break. The break can come in the form of lower interest rates, a longer tenure, deferring a part of your loan or even “forgiving” a chunk of your loan (that doesn’t happen all that often).

The key word of the above paragraph is “seems”. The truth is not even close to simple. Banks are businesses and like all businesses, successful ones anyway, they need to know where they are going, what the future will look like in order to decide what decisions to make today.
Investors and business analysts also want to know what the future of business looks like. Mortgage and securities analysts have a difficult job on their hands because the future is so difficult (read impossible) to predict accurately.

Loan modifications depend on how the future looks to analysts because mortgage providers decide what interest rates, conditions and how generous (how much they can afford to call a loss) they are going to be depending on how good or how bad things look.
Analysts look at how big companies prepare themselves for the future as a way of checking their own predictions. How can an analyst see how a big company like a bank or mortgage provider is preparing for the future?

One way is to see how much they are setting aside for bad loans and delinquent payments. If a bank predicts the economic future is looking bleak they will set aside larger amounts of cash in case their customers (borrowers) fail to pay. Of course even this is not as simple as all that. If a company wishes to boost their profit or improve how their accounting looks they can play with these figures.

Nevertheless, alarm bells ring in analysts ears when big companies, like Citigroup, reduce their contingency reserves and they can’t figure out why. This is what happened this week and analysts are still asking why.

Normally when banks stock away less cash to cover for loan losses it can be interpreted as a sign of improving credit conditions, but when analysts looked at the rest of Citigroup’s earnings report there was little if any proof of borrower difficulties easing off. What analysts have noticed is that non-performing loans has gone up by 16%, 7% and in the last quarter by 5% which would indicate an improvement in borrowers’ ability to pay but seems to be more of a reaction to the loan modification effort by the government that is improving underlying credit quality.

So is Citigroup being too optimistic or do they believe that the government’s programs have a chance to control the credit crisis? One thing is for sure in business, time will tell.