Comments on: Spike in existing home sales mostly fueled by foreclosures http://blownmortgage.com/2009/03/23/spike-in-existing-home-sales-mostly-fueled-by-foreclosures/ #1 Free Home Loan Modification & Debt Relief Help For US Home Owners - Truths, Facts & News About the Mortgage Industry Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:41:57 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.3 hourly 1 By: Fielding Mellish http://blownmortgage.com/2009/03/23/spike-in-existing-home-sales-mostly-fueled-by-foreclosures/comment-page-1/#comment-35401 Fielding Mellish Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:34:42 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/?p=2787#comment-35401 After the Dow crashed in Sept '29 from 381 to 200, it rallied back up nearly 50% to just shy of 300 in April, 1930. Ultimately it bottomed @ 41 in 1932 (down 89% from its '29 peak) after having gone through SEVEN rallies after the '29 crash. A 1,000 point (15%) rally does not mean the bear market is over. Just a few months ago the Dow was dropping 1,000 points a day. We have undergone the first significant real estate crash in 75 years, with home values having fallen ~ 30-40% and commercial real estate following suit. In a country whose seeming prosperity was goosed by loose lending against ever-rising real estate values values, to think that we would be out of the woods after one short market correction and a recession that wasn't even agreed to BE a recession until recently seems, well, optimistic. After the Dow crashed in Sept '29 from 381 to 200, it rallied back up nearly 50% to just shy of 300 in April, 1930. Ultimately it bottomed @ 41 in 1932 (down 89% from its '29 peak) after having gone through SEVEN rallies after the '29 crash. A 1,000 point (15%) rally does not mean the bear market is over. Just a few months ago the Dow was dropping 1,000 points a day. We have undergone the first significant real estate crash in 75 years, with home values having fallen ~ 30-40% and commercial real estate following suit. In a country whose seeming prosperity was goosed by loose lending against ever-rising real estate values values, to think that we would be out of the woods after one short market correction and a recession that wasn't even agreed to BE a recession until recently seems, well, optimistic.

]]> By: Fielding Mellish http://blownmortgage.com/2009/03/23/spike-in-existing-home-sales-mostly-fueled-by-foreclosures/comment-page-1/#comment-35397 Fielding Mellish Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:12:51 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/?p=2787#comment-35397 After the Dow crashed in Sept '29 from 381 to 200, it rallied back up nearly 50% to just shy of 300 in April, 1930. Ultimately it bottomed @ 41 in 1932 (down 89% from its '29 peak) after having gone through SEVEN rallies after the '29 crash. A 1,000 point (15%) rally does not mean the bear market is over. Just a few months ago the Dow was dropping 1,000 points a day. We have undergone the first significant real estate crash in 75 years, with home values having fallen ~ 30-40% and commercial real estate following suit. In a country whose seeming prosperity was goosed by loose lending against ever-rising real estate values values, to think that we would be out of the woods after one short market correction and a recession that wasn't even agreed to BE a recession until recently seems, well, optimistic.<br><br>Fielding Mellish, Fmr President, San Marcos After the Dow crashed in Sept '29 from 381 to 200, it rallied back up nearly 50% to just shy of 300 in April, 1930. Ultimately it bottomed @ 41 in 1932 (down 89% from its '29 peak) after having gone through SEVEN rallies after the '29 crash. A 1,000 point (15%) rally does not mean the bear market is over. Just a few months ago the Dow was dropping 1,000 points a day. We have undergone the first significant real estate crash in 75 years, with home values having fallen ~ 30-40% and commercial real estate following suit. In a country whose seeming prosperity was goosed by loose lending against ever-rising real estate values values, to think that we would be out of the woods after one short market correction and a recession that wasn't even agreed to BE a recession until recently seems, well, optimistic.

Fielding Mellish, Fmr President, San Marcos

]]> By: Fielding Mellish http://blownmortgage.com/2009/03/23/spike-in-existing-home-sales-mostly-fueled-by-foreclosures/comment-page-1/#comment-35392 Fielding Mellish Tue, 24 Mar 2009 13:48:54 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/?p=2787#comment-35392 After the Dow crashed in Sept '29 from 381 to 200, it rallied back up nearly 50% to just shy of 300 in April, 1930. Ultimately it bottomed @ 41 in 1932 (down 89% from its '29 peak) after having gone through SEVEN rallies after the '29 crash. A 1,000 point (15%) rally does not mean the bear market is over. Just a few months ago the Dow was dropping 1,000 points a day. We have undergone the first significant real estate crash in 75 years, with home values having fallen ~ 30-40% and commercial real estate following suit. In a country whose seeming prosperity was goosed by loose lending against ever-rising real estate values values, to think that we would be out of the woods after one short market correction and a recession that wasn't even agreed to BE a recession until recently seems, well, optimistic. After the Dow crashed in Sept '29 from 381 to 200, it rallied back up nearly 50% to just shy of 300 in April, 1930. Ultimately it bottomed @ 41 in 1932 (down 89% from its '29 peak) after having gone through SEVEN rallies after the '29 crash. A 1,000 point (15%) rally does not mean the bear market is over. Just a few months ago the Dow was dropping 1,000 points a day. We have undergone the first significant real estate crash in 75 years, with home values having fallen ~ 30-40% and commercial real estate following suit. In a country whose seeming prosperity was goosed by loose lending against ever-rising real estate values values, to think that we would be out of the woods after one short market correction and a recession that wasn't even agreed to BE a recession until recently seems, well, optimistic.

]]> By: Constantine von Hoffman http://blownmortgage.com/2009/03/23/spike-in-existing-home-sales-mostly-fueled-by-foreclosures/comment-page-1/#comment-35391 Constantine von Hoffman Tue, 24 Mar 2009 13:35:54 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/?p=2787#comment-35391 Hey DD,<br><br>You raise a very good point: I'm curious to find out when I'm going to change my mind, too.<br><br> I just haven't seen any actual changes in the underlying problems that justify an actual feeling of confidence in the economy. I feel like everything is being papered over, that I'm being spun. I do NOT trust the Dow as an indicator of anything. Why is it more reliable now than when it was at 13000? <br><br>I try to look at other things and discount the Dow's movement unless I see a correlation to what I think is actual change. I know how fallible that approach is -- I just wish others would also admit their own fallibility. <br><br>C. Hey DD,

You raise a very good point: I'm curious to find out when I'm going to change my mind, too.

I just haven't seen any actual changes in the underlying problems that justify an actual feeling of confidence in the economy. I feel like everything is being papered over, that I'm being spun. I do NOT trust the Dow as an indicator of anything. Why is it more reliable now than when it was at 13000?

I try to look at other things and discount the Dow's movement unless I see a correlation to what I think is actual change. I know how fallible that approach is — I just wish others would also admit their own fallibility.

C.

]]> By: DD http://blownmortgage.com/2009/03/23/spike-in-existing-home-sales-mostly-fueled-by-foreclosures/comment-page-1/#comment-35351 DD Tue, 24 Mar 2009 03:59:36 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/?p=2787#comment-35351 The DOW was at 6500 13 days ago, when are you going to stop calling this a dead cat....<br><br>Enjoy your short squeeze, I will listen for screams that this isn't real The DOW was at 6500 13 days ago, when are you going to stop calling this a dead cat….

Enjoy your short squeeze, I will listen for screams that this isn't real

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