CPAs v. Economists: Who do you believe?

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The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants issued a report last week saying don’t expect any improvement until 2010 at least: “any economic recovery will begin six months later than previously expected.” By contrast the National Association for Business Economics put out a report this week saying, “economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%.”

Hmmm, who to trust? Forecasters or bean counters? Which group would you let do your taxes? AICP has another advantage – the group’s name actually tells you what they do. “National Association for Business Economics”? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is that?

Giving the CPAs further credibility – in a depressing way – is their reliance on what some would call facts: “Capital spending freezes have been put in place at nearly half of respondents’ companies, and 43 percent have had layoffs.”

The report is not entirely without optimism, though: “One glimmer of hope is that about a quarter of companies still expect some growth.” As Sudeep Reddy notes at the WSJ’s Real Time Economics blog, “Yes, only a quarter of firms expecting growth is what passes for hope these days.”

Constantine von Hoffman is a veteran business journalist and author of the blog CollateralDamage, a satirical look at marketing and business.