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Is There Any Good News For Real Estate?

by phillenbrand on January 28, 2009

When it comes to most topics of interest, I tend to be an optimist by nature. When I read about great stocks like Apple getting cut in half or the overall market being dragged ever further into the tank, I tend to look at it as a buying opportunity (your mileage my vary of course, opinions abound as to what’s value and what’s a value trap) for stocks that have been needlessly battered. When I read about the rising tide of foreclosures and housing prices falling across the globe, I try to look at ias giving new homeowners a shot at getting in on the ground floor. I accept the negatives for what they are and try to find a positive slant, if you will, without one of those “everything will be fine!” mentalities that borderlines denial. Unfortunately for me, the real estate market just can’t seem to find it’s footing, the floor keeps getting redefined, but as with anything else, it’s not all bad.

Let’s look at what we have. If you can find the financing from..well somewhere, rates for mortgages are being driven downward. Sellers are getting increasingly anxious to unload their properties, and so you can find all sorts of exotic ways to pick up a house for a bargain (no, not exotic mortgages..those have gone the way of the dodo). If you’re looking to buy a home, you’ll likely find that sellers are willing to give you a numerous number of perks or meet your conditions, so feel free to haggle and take advantage (pun not intended). It’s definitely a buyers market out there, so good for you if you can manage to secure the funding.

We’ve also had a trickle of good news here and there from the headlines as well. Existing home sales actually rose in December, for example, even as prices continue to fall. Bargain hunters are emerging from the wood work (for reasons listed above) and that could mean a bottom in prices in the near future, although I think the past year has proven that very few people have a functional crystal ball, so I won’t go so far as to say I expect a bottom here. If that’s the case, even current homeowners may have small reasons to celebrate in 2009. Besides, things could be worse, right?

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  • westwest888
    I disagree, because the floor for housing is very well defined. Just like stocks, homes are subject to valuation techniques. 3x the income of the person who would live in the house, maximum. 120x monthly rent, maximum. The house if rented has to have positive cash flow _without_ claiming the home as a primary residence for a tax benefit, no "pro forma" analysis (include a repair and LT renvoation budget), budget for property tax going up and rent deflating or vacancies (especially in this climate).

    So figure out the valuation (hint it's 35% lower than where we are now on average for the top 20 cities and I'm not talking about Vegas I'm talking about Boston, New York, and most of California). Then figure out what the over correction point is. The biggest housing bubble in human history will be following by the biggest over correction in human history.

    I'll go ahead and posit that Detriot is a microcosm of where most of the US will end up. Houses are selling for four and five figure amounts because it's cheaper to rent. There are more houses than there are people. And the tax burden is too high. As every state and county tries to fund its pension obligations in an anemic and range bound stock market for the next decade, they will jack up the price of housing so high NO ONE WILL WANT TO OWN.
  • Your last commentator makes some valid points and from what I hear there is still some way before your market reaches the bottom. Our market here in NZ seems to be following the same route as the US (only a year or so behind) with an home affordability reaching levels out of reach of most first home buyers coupled with high interest rates. The rates are starting to come down now but house sales have fallen by a half and prices look to have some way to go also. Nice blog.
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