Ritholtz, Yun on the Housing Market

As it is refreshing to hear Yun admit to being human and in error..it makes you wonder what the real roles are of such organizations as NAR and NMBA....who really have done NOTHING to help the housing market. The head of these organizations should have been banging on the doors leading to Congress, and trying to head up committees to stem the tide of the never ending housing slide. It is nice to give speeches and all..but their lack of action speaks volumes more...

Ann,

First of all - great to have a comment from you! I was afraid we'd lost you! Happy New Year to you and all the best for this year.

I agree with your perspective. As we watch these CEO's (who will surely be dragged in front of a grand jury) go down we have to wonder what level of responsibility the heads of these cheerleading organizations must be held accountable for. They clearly influenced public perception, encouraged reckless lending and buying habits, influenced and lobbied to keep congress and regulators out of the insanity and continue to push for standards and legislation that are not in the best interest of the American public, it's economy and public institutions.

I would hope that there would be some repercussion for these highly-influential people who knowingly make false and misleading statements to try to hoodwink the American public. Without any recourse they will continue to undermine what's left of our economy. They must be held accountable for their actions.

People like Yun bug the hell out of me. They believe the government should be in the business of manipulating people's perception so he can make money and get rich. That is WHY I don't buy and have been waiting. The invisible hand of capitalism is starting to not be invisible at all but some sales person or banker trying to get their hand on my money and not giving a shit of what happens to me after the deal. The government is an accomplice to all this. Well screw them all and I WILL KEEP MY MONEY!

I agree. See my above comment. I believe that those in influential places who knowingly provide misleading information to the benefit of themselves and their organizations should be held just as accountable as CEO's who do the same thing.

What is worse is the government becomes their mouth piece and so we begin to distrust the government and the federal reserve. How can we have confidence in the dollar and our currency when their focus is a stable and rising home price instead of a stable dollar?

It appears the panel expects a bottom to occur in 2009. I wasn't to clear if they expected property values to bottom, or sales activity, but in any event, some sort of bottom to occur in late 2009. The reason I have a problem believing this forecast is because of the amount of ALT-A and prime loans already in the shoot towards foreclosure. Some of that inventory will be hitting the market by mid year and growing therafter. As we know, the ALT-A universe is greater than sub-prime, which has peaked and passed. How can a recovery occur when the tsunami hits in 2009? Add to this that 58% of all the loan modifications made thus far are back in foreclosure. I recently read another analyst's report indicating job losses could peak at 1 million per month in late 2009. This may seem a little extreme, but it continues at the half million loss per month rate, how can you support a bottom to occur in 2009? The panel also omitted several other hazards faced by the lending community, namely the collapse of commercial real estate, the credit card fiasco, and repo cars coming back at an alarming rate. These additional shocks to the credit market will surely forestall any sort of bottom, much less recover in 2009. As all these threats manifest and ripple through the economy, I don't see any bottoming until 2011.

Inman,

You are in the position to do this, so I hope you will

You want a real questions for anybody at NAR... Ask them when in the past 25-40 years had it been their public opinion that it was not a good time or a good year to buy... Not in hindsight- but in real time guidance.

After their answer, where does their creditability on such issues come from?