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The Case-Shiller home price index was released for October today, and (surprise, surprise) home prices are down a record 18% from last year’s levels. This drop marks the 27th straight monthly drop in home prices in the 20 major metro areas tracked by the study.
Surely, it will only get worse with this dismal economy really starting to stall out just about now.
All of this begs the following questions.
- Where are all the smart people who said we’d be looking at a recovery by Spring 2009?
- How about those who said that housing prices have found bottom?
- How about the Realtors telling their clients to get in now at low rates and affordable prices?
The answer is simple. They’re all telling the same lies they’ve been telling for the last two years. They’re simply pushing out their estimates three more months. “Not spring, but definitely fall 2009,” is the new refrain.
Don’t buy it. The housing market will only pick up speed on its way down, aided by a crumbling economy. There is absolutely no reason to believe that we will see bottom any time before 2011/2012. And, most importantly, YOU WON’T MISS IT! Housing bottoms are long, painful and flat. It’s not like stocks. The only way you’ll miss this bottom is if you die, seriously.
So don’t listen to real estate agents trying to push you in to a home. Don’t feel intimidated about putting in an ultra low bid on a property. And surely, feel no pressure at all to buy anything within the next 12 months easy.
It’s (still) all downhill from here.
Last 3 posts by Morgan
- Subprime Bananas - June 28th, 2009
- Roubini: No confidence in government exit strategy - June 24th, 2009
- Goldman bonuses largest in firm's 140-year history - June 21st, 2009
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