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Lehman survival in doubt

by Morgan on September 11, 2008

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This is all over the news today, but the basic idea is that stockholders and Wall Street were, let’s put it nicely, underwhelmed with the restructuring and rescue plan laid out by Lehman Brothers management on yesterday’s conference call.  I’d be underwhelmed too.  Spinning off a couple of units and dumping debt don’t seem to be enough to rescue a company who is basically worth nothing.

From the AP:

For investors, the strategy seemed long on hope, short on details and raised questions about timing and execution, analysts said. Investors had hoped to see a solid plan in place to offset almost $6.5 billion of losses during the past two quarters.

“Management did not successfully put to rest the issues that had been pressuring the stock,” Goldman Sachs analyst William Tanona wrote in a research report.

More from naked capitalism:

I heard this rumor from two sources, that Lehman is in its final day or two and Goldman is willing to buy the firm, and the second source, who volunteered the information, is sufficiently well plugged in that I trust the reading. This came from a former senior employee:

A couple friends of mine from LEH trading desk called me this a.m. to say that mgmt has taken employees aside to let them know that the end should come in next 24-48 hours. Ratings agencies apparently told them that the steps were not sufficient to prevent a d/g, and LEH mgmt asked them to hold off for a day or so to give them a chance to resolve situation (with sale of company).

Apparently GS is willing buyer, but is buyer of last resort from LEH’s perspective, b/c they would keep very few LEH employees.

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  • Don
    Morgan, I totally agree!!! Wow, LEH is trading at $4.96 a share right now. And the other news is WAMU, which is trading at $2.16 right now. It better find a buyer quick or watch the FDIC come in either tomorrow or next week.

    This is breathtaking................
  • It really just goes to show that we have no clue what's next. Frightening.
  • Fielding Mellish
    We haven't heard much lately about the ~ $1 trillion in off-balance-sheet Citibank assets. That's trillion with a " T ". My guess is that that's the big untold story. And Paulson & co. may not even have it on their radar (yet).
  • You're right Fielding - after their spasms to raise a bunch of capital quickly they've been eerily quite. Too big to fail??? Hmmm..... doubt it.
  • Stephen Politowicz
    Add one more to the growing conga line of failing banks....Woohoo WaMu should be next. As for Lehman, there's an old song that's appropriate right now...

    "Oh beat the drums slowly
    and play the pipes o'er me.
    Play the death march as they
    carry me along.
    Put bunches of roses all over
    my coffin.
    Roses to deaden...the bonuses now gone!"

    I've heard there are several parties interested in the carcass of IndyMac, and the FDIC wants any bids in by 10/15...cause they think they're going to have a VERY busy holiday season.
  • Don't we have to wait until the weekend? I think the pattern is "all quiet on the western front" until Friday at 5pm EST. Then the FDIC gets to work, assets are seized, banks sold, and all without the pesky stock market to react.
  • Ann
    I agree Keith, the private jets are taking off as we speak for the secret meeting...
  • Ann
    But wasn't it only a few days ago..Sunday...the cure all was the FED take over of Fannie and Freddie..how quickly that has faded away...didn't even take a week...

    More to come in this industry and none of it will be pretty for at least another year...between bank failures and the wave of Option ARMS that will hit soon..

    Best thing that could happen is the take over by the FDIC...who will be more proactive in working with these Option Arm people who will topple what we saw in subprime and will discover what is REALLY on the books.

    This only goes to show that the top 1% of the company didn't give a damn about the stockholders and will instead bail with ton$ of moneyand future postions provided by the good ole boy club...Sad to see the days of proactive boards and attitudes of saving companies have become extinct..as the movie Wall Street proclaimed GREED IS GOOD...but it depends on which side of fence you are...
  • Ann, you're right. The FDIC has already shown that it's been willing to work more closely with IndyMac borrowers than the servicing departments. Will option arm holders get 1% interest rates for 30-years to stay in their houses? Will this be the ultimate definition of moral hazard? It will be interesting to see which way the FDIC goes with it.
  • mikew
    This is sad news. However, we have seen this as a strong possiblity since the collaspe of Bear Stearns in March.

    We also are prepared for a few large banks to collaspe as well as many smaller banks. The fed has been quite vocal on this for some time. We simply have too many banks in the system. Lehman and Bear were the most aggressive in lending. Wamu was certainly very agressive in lending. I can remember when their strategy was to simply buy every strong lender they could. Wachovia is more of the same. All of these institutions failed to practice conservative fundamental business policies.

    The banks that are the strongest today are those that resisted the temptation for the greed of the fast and easy housing market. These conservative banks are now picking up these failed banks for pennys on the dollar. This is a good thing.

    What I am most encouraged by is the Fed saying they wont bail them out. Thats very important. Thats the best way to bring this to an end quicker.
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