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A great quote in the New York Times by way of Naked Capitalism from one of my favorite authors, pundits, quants Nassim Taleb about those trying to make predictions in the current market:
“I cannot find a single convincing argument that tells me that astrologers won’t do better than economists,” Mr. [Nassim Nicholas] Taleb said last week by telephone from Lebanon, where he was mountain hiking.
“The problem is the arrogance of these economists,” he said. “They’re making people rely on theories that have not worked, do not work, and are really dangerous.”
Taleb most-recently wrote The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable which argues that traditional risk-avoidance measures are woefully inaccurate in the face of catastrophic events. He remains amazingly prescient.
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