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NAR’s Yun Spews Same Ole Bulls***t

by Morgan on May 15, 2008

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Larry Yun of the NAR spin-machine is back at it today saying that recession “isn’t in the cards – no matter how you look at it” and calling for home prices to recover across the country in the second half of this year.  How this guy is a high-level economist at the leading trade organization representing homebuyers and sellers is beyond me.  Good thing not too many people outside the Realtor pale take him seriously.  

From the NAR’s release of Yun’s economic and housing forecast (excuse me while I puke):

“There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions
are ripe for buyers,” he added. “Those are the facts, plain and simple.”

As for a recession, it’s not happening, Yun said. “A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It’s not in the cards – no matter how you look at it.”

Larry, as for the plain-and-simple facts do you care to comment on the graph below?  How does this tidal wave of resets in a negative equity environment fit in to your ‘08 recovery?  How do tightened underwriting guidelines and the elimination of high-LTV purchase loans and limited documentation loan types fit in?  Now everyone buying needs 10-20% (I’m generalizing here) down and fully documented income and we’re supposed to see a “swift” recovery?  Come on!  

Someone in Congress should haul this guy in front of a Senate committee and make him testify to this BS under oath and then jail him for perjury, seriously.

 

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  • Chris
    He's got nothing to lose dude, hehe.
  • What I found interesting was the the Wall Street Journal today reported that Fannie and Freddie are eliminating their provisions requiring extra down in declining markets. Note that the pressure on Fannie and Freddie to do this came from two groups that are severely impacted by the housing downturn, the NAR and the NAHB.

    My comments at: www.mortgagebs.blogspot.com

    I wonder how much credence Fannie and Freddie are putting into Yun's words?
  • BLKBART
    One question about the chart - does it start as of Jan. 2007 or Jan 2008? It says Data as of Jan 2007 below? If that the case, aren't we in month 17 not 5?
  • you're right - it's just a chart that i have from old posts - so yes you
    have to move the needle. the first wave is not the concern - it's the
    second wave of higher-credit exotic loans that i'm referring to. i should
    make that more clear in my post - thank you.
  • srascoff
    Morgan,
    Great post, as usual. I forwarded it to several journalists who have complained to me about the massive spin of NAR data.
    It's also amusing timing from NAR. I don't know how he can in good conscience say that a recession is "not in the cards - no matter how you look at it". The National Association for Business Economists released a study today. From the Associated Press:
    "A growing number of economists believe the country is on the brink of a recession or in one already, dragged down by all the problems in housing, credit and financial markets. Now 56 percent of the economists think the economy has started or will enter a recession this year. That's up from 45 percent in a survey in February."

    Article is here: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Wob...
  • It seems ludicrous that reporters would even consider the NAR data as
    any close representation to the facts based on their track record of
    repeated misrepresentations...
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