Dan,
Honestly the Amero has been on the table for about 7 to 8 years now (possibly longer). I think that a new currency will put us even further behind the 8-ball because we will need to show something tangible to the rest of the world in order to back up the value of that new currency. I’m not trying to be an alarmist but there are (2) items we have to look at here: 1)We’re in this mess because since the 1st refi bubble in 97, big business has gradually been moving offshore leaving us all empty handed with no industries to rely on for job growth, just the power to spend money that none of us have. and 2)We’ve been borrowing off of China for the last 7 years to fund our day to day expenses along the war in Iraq. We’ve got no way to pay back the trillions of dollars that we owe to China and there is no way big business will move back home to the U.S. after they’ve had a taste of cheap labor overseas. I’m not sure what effect the amero will have on our economy, society, housing, food, energy, foreign relations ect. But I can tell you this. After this depression is over (that’s right, I said depression, the news is just trying to soften the blow by saying recession!)the currency as we know it now will probably not exist which is really gonna piss off our global creditors! This is just common sense stuff that I’m observing based on what is happening in front of our eyes. The next few years are going to really suck bad for us all so brace yourself because the ride’s over.

What things can we expect to see (economy, society, housing, food, energy, foreign relations ect..) when they do bring in the Amero?

If I were you I would start buying gold and silver coins which I am.
Because those coins will be worth more than the dollar and the Amero.

Morgan, your prediction that wholesale production will drop by 25% is altogether reasonable. But I think that more reflective of the fact that the entire mortgage market has been in a state of confusion. Also history has indicated that the wholesale market share has always dropped a bit during years after refi booms. Its normal for wholesale to loss 5-10% market share in this type of market.

However, it is just possible that production levels will improve due to the expected stronger rate cuts contributed by the fed–no matter how you look at it thats gas to a mortgage company. Not to mention when congress passes the FHA bill as well as increases the limits on conforming loan amounts that will certainly help increase mortgage production. Keep in mind the FHA bill actually makes it easier for a broker to qualify to offer FHA loans.

The market for mortgages in the foreseeable future is good ole fannie mae/ freddie, govt mortgages. THere is no reason to believe that the funds are going to be pulled from the wholesale channel. I have yet to see how a large clumbersome bank can produce conventional/govt. mortgages better than a mortgage broker—especially the talented mortgage brokers that have made it this far into the market.

On the point of broker dominance in the market I disagree, wholesale origination as a percentage of total origination is and will be down significantly moving forward. That IS the definition of wholesale contraction.

Good brokers will be valued if they have access to products that they can sell competitively. Big banks will be valued because of their brand equity. It’s a tough battle.

Bottom line – wholesale is contracting and will play a smaller role. I’m happy to place a friendly gentlemen’s wager that wholesale production will be down by at least 25% year over year from 2007 to 2008.

Your stat on the fact that 70% of borrowers were unhappy with previous mortgage transaction doesn’t mean much. It means they will look for a new originator. I welcome the fact that they are still looking for another originator.

Please keep in mind that while you are labeling brokers as sharks, that banks have quite a bad reputation as predatory lenders themselves. Let us not forget about ACCORN going after Wells, Just this week the City of Baltimore sued Wells Fargo for abusive lending practices. Both HSBC and CITI recently settled predatory lending claims to the tunes of hundreds of millions of dollars. Ameriquest was not a broker. Countrywide has been protrayed as the king devil of abusive mortgage lending, Wamu is presently under investigating for appraiser manipulation by the attorney general of the State of New York…,. Shall I go on?

It has been proven by a recent GAO report that foreclosures are happening because of the rise of securitization, resulting in too much liquidity, which led to aggressive practices by banks and other lenders. Simply put…blaming only mortgage brokers or an other one segment of this industry for this complex meltdown doesn’t stand up to the facts. The rise in securitizations happened mainly due to greed on Wall Street.

The heyday of the last few years are over. Its back the usual. A mortgage lending is once again responsible just like it was up to the 2003-2007. Back before wall street greed got into the mortgage picture the entire industry produced responsible loans. Oh yeah….mortgage brokers had the lions share of the market then too.

If you personally have established good relationships with your customers I say good for you and I hope that there will be wholesalers who will step up to fill the void. The question is will the secondary market continue to buy wholesale loans – the answer right now is a definitive no.

Most brokers were quick-hitters looking for quick dollars and not concerned with building long-term relationships. I’m glad you chose the other path.

BOA will have their hands full and their pockets clear out with a ton of legal issues and servicing issues to deal with. The press will stilll be critical of the former countrywide. It wont be an easy rode in the short term. BOA/CW will be busy with all of these negatives for sometime. Meanwhile the most effecient wholesale system already in place will continue to advance.

We have already reduced our shops and became lean and mean. BOA/CW has a lot of cutting to do. Countrywide has a brand issue while brokers have established personal relationships with our clients and customers.

With all of that said, I believe that it was still a great buy on BOA’s part. In a few short years Countrywides platforms will make them an excellent asset of BOA.

I say “thank God somebody finally did something about Countrywide,” I am sick of hearing about them.

1) they will completely pull out of wholesale and move into banking alone or banking and loan servicing.

2) B of A will wait until the stock price drops so low that right before CW files the ch. 11 B of A comes in to buy the entire firm for pennies on the dollar. Remember, they just blew out their entire salesforce no too long ago (3000 people!). Computers, chairs, offices, Ops, and sales are already in place. Once that happens, the stock price rebounds, the 2 Billion dollar conv stock purchase is now irrelevant, many lawsuits currently against the firm will be dropped.

3) Mozilo will step down as CEO, take his money and exit the company. This will send investors over the egde and you will soon see Mozilo, Sambol, Sieraki, Ranjit, Speaks, McCallion, Garcia, and all of the other insiders who have sold stock or exercised options to profit from this mess on Capital Hill sometime by the end of the year getting jackhammered by Congress on a plethora of why?s, why not?s, whats, and hows! You can goto yahoo, click on finance, type in CFC as a ticker, and over to the left check on all of the inside trades made since 1/07. I think one or two of the people may try to commit suicide as the overwhelming embarrassment and shame will be too much but somebody?s going to prison.

4) Nothing happens to CW. However, more and more Arabic investors flow into the United States buying up the remains of America like the Jones of NY deal that just went through (sold to an accounting firm owned by the govt. of Dubai). Eventually this will make the NAU (North American Union) and the Amero (replacement for the dollar) easier to sell to the Amercan public as we will be told that we need a new currency and a borderless Continent to compete with Europe and the Euro. It?s coming!