Comments on: “Prices must and will fall. Everywhere. Probably 25% to 30% from their peak.” http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/ #1 Free Home Loan Modification & Debt Relief Help For US Home Owners - Truths, Facts & News About the Mortgage Industry Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:51:22 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.3 hourly 1 By: Toby http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8518 Toby Sat, 29 Dec 2007 19:41:34 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8518 That 25-30% is a weighted average for the country as a whole. FL and CA are sunk. West Texas and Missouri are fine. Depends where you live. All real estate is local. Its the affordability index and rent ratio that matter for each area. That 25-30% is a weighted average for the country as a whole. FL and CA are sunk. West Texas and Missouri are fine. Depends where you live. All real estate is local. Its the affordability index and rent ratio that matter for each area.

]]> By: Steve http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8509 Steve Sat, 29 Dec 2007 06:13:11 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8509 "Everywhere" may be focused on the LA area. Once I figured out the scam, I sold my bubblecious home and took a reloc to the middle of nowhere. Houses here have appreciated very little and in my case I paid less than the previous owner paid (and they put some serious upgrades into the place). A house is a depreciating asset? Imagine that! And yes I do qualify under the strictest loan standards, but I admit that I would have to cash out other investments to come up with 20% down. 0% down with no PMI was too good to pass up :-) “Everywhere” may be focused on the LA area. Once I figured out the scam, I sold my bubblecious home and took a reloc to the middle of nowhere. Houses here have appreciated very little and in my case I paid less than the previous owner paid (and they put some serious upgrades into the place).

A house is a depreciating asset? Imagine that!

And yes I do qualify under the strictest loan standards, but I admit that I would have to cash out other investments to come up with 20% down. 0% down with no PMI was too good to pass up :-)

]]> By: Schahrzad http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8508 Schahrzad Sat, 29 Dec 2007 06:05:01 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8508 Omaha, NE is a city that saw only 1-3% annual appreciation for decades, but even there prices are down 10% in the last year, due to overbuilding. So even in areas that did not join the bubbble, prices are falling. Omaha, NE is a city that saw only 1-3% annual appreciation for decades, but even there prices are down 10% in the last year, due to overbuilding.

So even in areas that did not join the bubbble, prices are falling.

]]> By: Schahrzad http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8507 Schahrzad Sat, 29 Dec 2007 06:01:10 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8507 While at UCLA Anderson, Thornburg said house prices will NOT fall. The bubble bursts by prices staying flat until wages catch up. He also refused to mention the words subprime lending, ARMs, neg-am, or anything related to lending. It wasn't until a few months ago, long after starting his own company, that he started talking about prices dropping. So he was not a visionary after all, but more one of those people who speaks after the fact. My thinking is he could not speak freely while at UCLA, due to funding from Wachovia and other special interest groups. I say that because he spoke with great clarity on all other economic topics. I have his research papers and attended his seminar in San Diego in May 2006. While at UCLA Anderson, Thornburg said house prices will NOT fall. The bubble bursts by prices staying flat until wages catch up. He also refused to mention the words subprime lending, ARMs, neg-am, or anything related to lending. It wasn’t until a few months ago, long after starting his own company, that he started talking about prices dropping. So he was not a visionary after all, but more one of those people who speaks after the fact.

My thinking is he could not speak freely while at UCLA, due to funding from Wachovia and other special interest groups. I say that because he spoke with great clarity on all other economic topics. I have his research papers and attended his seminar in San Diego in May 2006.

]]> By: Ann http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8506 Ann Sat, 29 Dec 2007 04:23:36 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8506 Tom..I do agree with you that a price drop will happen, however to say that it will be 25-30% from peak everywhere it just not feasible...especiall since some markets did not see a high amount of appreciation like FL and CA.. Now certain areas within the states of FL and CA..oh yes..you will see that kind of price drop..especially in FL..which is known to be a low wage earning state..(as backed up by the Miami area having the highest drop in prices, by 12%, compared to 20 other major cities reported this month)...many ciites in Fl saw increases as much as 150% during the housing boom! Makes sense that if it went up by a huge amount that the correction should be just as brutual.. Tom..I do agree with you that a price drop will happen, however to say that it will be 25-30% from peak everywhere it just not feasible…especiall since some markets did not see a high amount of appreciation like FL and CA..

Now certain areas within the states of FL and CA..oh yes..you will see that kind of price drop..especially in FL..which is known to be a low wage earning state..(as backed up by the Miami area having the highest drop in prices, by 12%, compared to 20 other major cities reported this month)…many ciites in Fl saw increases as much as 150% during the housing boom! Makes sense that if it went up by a huge amount that the correction should be just as brutual..

]]> By: Chris http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8505 Chris Sat, 29 Dec 2007 02:40:26 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8505 I think the harder question is, with the spate of cash out refinances that happened, what will the lenders do with collateral that doesn't equal the value of the loan. I think the harder question is, with the spate of cash out refinances that happened, what will the lenders do with collateral that doesn’t equal the value of the loan.

]]> By: Tom http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8504 Tom Sat, 29 Dec 2007 01:55:24 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8504 Matt, You make some good points. In many markets, the prices have outstripped incomes. My brother lives in Sacramento and bought his house 7 years ago. I know he couldn't afford to buy his house this year. On the other hand, my younger brother bought his house near Grand Rapids Michigan about 5 years ago, and he could. I bought my house (same area) 4 years ago, and I could. I guess my point is that those type of rapid price appreciations happened in a lot of markets, but not in all markets. I think your question about what are you going to do differently in 2008 is very similar to my post about the definition of insanity. A very important question that each of us needs to answer if we plan on continuing in this business. Matt, You make some good points. In many markets, the prices have outstripped incomes. My brother lives in Sacramento and bought his house 7 years ago. I know he couldn’t afford to buy his house this year. On the other hand, my younger brother bought his house near Grand Rapids Michigan about 5 years ago, and he could. I bought my house (same area) 4 years ago, and I could. I guess my point is that those type of rapid price appreciations happened in a lot of markets, but not in all markets.

I think your question about what are you going to do differently in 2008 is very similar to my post about the definition of insanity. A very important question that each of us needs to answer if we plan on continuing in this business.

]]> By: Zig Zeigler http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/comment-page-1/#comment-8503 Zig Zeigler Sat, 29 Dec 2007 01:49:46 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/28/prices-must-and-will-fall-everywhere-probably-25-to-30-from-their-peak/#comment-8503 Hey Numbnuts! Read the article again. The "everywhere" to which Thornberg is referring is SOCA. Things are humming along nicely here in Portland. Your one-sided cheerleading is tiresome. This blog has gone downhill since it added other so-called writers, I mean ax-grinders. Hey Numbnuts! Read the article again. The “everywhere” to which Thornberg is referring is SOCA. Things are humming along nicely here in Portland.

Your one-sided cheerleading is tiresome. This blog has gone downhill since it added other so-called writers, I mean ax-grinders.

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