> We?ll see a 12-14% one year decline in property values.
Maybe I’m jaded because I live in Phoenix, but this sounds too conservative. Nationwide, sure. But in bubbly areas 20% or more is likely (I’m not saying “possible”, I’m saying likely!).

> Loan To Value will be capped at 80% for most loans.
My 2009 prediction – LTV capped at 70% for most/all loans. But that’ll be as bad as it gets.

One final question, when does the REO liquidation begin? 2008? If so, what month (or season)?

I suspect that many of the people who are negative about the housing market are positive about their own personal prospects. That’s my outlook, anyway. A terrible housing market and increasingly conservative underwriting rules will drive out the idiots – leaving only those of us whose focus has always been on advising the consumer of the most cost-effective financing.

I am assuming that none of you are in CA(like Guy) and FL..where most brokers are not cheering their numbers in comparision from last year to this year..

Mike I don’t think that you are stupid..however I do believe that you are in a more stable market than many others.

Not every state is in a “major” housing crisis..that I agree…which is why I stated business, no matter how you slice it is down/changed for most.. you are having to work harder/smarter to meet your numbers..or you are not meeting them.

Does anyone have a link to a copy of the Senate bill that Dodd intorduced or is introducing.

Fact: We’ve learned that the high ysp loans have higher default and lower performance rates. Lenders will fix.

Fact: Lenders don’t want to compete with us as much as they are.

Question: My business will do another 25m next year. I am prepared for 80% max LTVs. I am prepared to attract 70% Deals, so whatever the market offers, I’m good.

Are you? What if I’m right? Is your business going to grow or get killed. I don’t want this reality to happen. I want Lawrence Yun to be right. He’s not, but I want it. Let’s deal with reality land, OK?

For every bank that steps out, another will step in. Just as Mike pointed out, a lot of the smaller regional banks have stepped up to the plate to do the loans that make sense that the big banks that are too stupid and inefficient won’t do.

The market is the way it is because investors can’t put a price on the loans. As such, no one wants to lend money until the market sets a price. This is why even loans that are great but don’t fit into the Fannie/Freddie model are priced so out of whack. However, if you look at the lenders who actually portfolio their stuff their pricing is phenomenal right now.

If your business was built on Option ARMs, SISAs and sub prime refi’s good riddance. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out back to the car lot.

The other good news is that consumer are finally getting that it isn’t good to work with the telemonkey LOs either. I am finding more consumers looking for PROFESSIONALS, not a 22 year old rate jockey promising the moon.

If they don’t wake up and smell the roses soon, they won’t be moving. Hope they can afford what they are currently involved in or measures could become drastic..

The problem that the markets have today are a result of low risk premiums in pricing and too much capiital being invested under false credit ratings. This primarily happend over a course of about 2 years. Those factors are changing. The loans we are now booking will perform better and create more demand for mortgage investing. Some useless products will be eliminated and some will come back with better risk pricing.

I dont doubt that 100% products are going to be tightened nor that transactions will be cut by a substancial number. But no one is going to tell a broker he can only make 1 or 2% on a loan. Thats simply laughable and blue sky wishing on behalf of the retail channel. LTVs are not going to be capped at the 1950 level of 80%.

Stated income loans need to be tightened further and thats a good thing. Personally I would like to see stated loans disappear completely. It would be a good thing if everyone paid the same taxes as I do.

I have litterally had new lenders call me everyday for the past two weeks looking to set up new wholesale relationships. The regional banks will seize on the weakness of the larger banks with their stronger balance sheets. It will be nice to have the big banks and their weak balance sheet retail reps on the street as my competition.

Disagree with me all you want but I will be in business for another 20 years years. My business plan has always been to build a clientelle of referral business. Thats the answer to long term success not trying to forecast what may or may not happen in the next 30 days or 12 months.

Everytime I write something remotely positive in this blog I get the same people telling me i am i basically stupid. I will accept that if you can tell me you too are making the same money this year as last. I actually will make more money this year. Thats what happens when you are positive.

Whenever I have had an employee with half as negative as most of you in this blog I know they dont have a snowballs chance in hell. My reccomendation to those of you who only see bad things is to get out of this business now. Its not meant to be an insult its truly whats best for you.