Comments on: My turn – predictions for 2008 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/ #1 Free Home Loan Modification & Debt Relief Help For US Home Owners - Truths, Facts & News About the Mortgage Industry Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:02:46 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.3 hourly 1 By: mike http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-8055 mike Fri, 14 Dec 2007 17:29:08 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-8055 Ultimately Countrywide will have to merge or be acquired. If not BOA...who then? Its obvious that the cards are stacked against them. How much longer can they tap the Fed home loan bank of Atlanta? Wont they soon have pledged all of their assets as collateral? Ultimately Countrywide will have to merge or be acquired. If not BOA…who then? Its obvious that the cards are stacked against them. How much longer can they tap the Fed home loan bank of Atlanta? Wont they soon have pledged all of their assets as collateral?

]]> By: King of YSP http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-8038 King of YSP Fri, 14 Dec 2007 04:47:09 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-8038 Countrywide and Bank of America cannot merge due to Bank of America's market share of the nations deposits. With the recent acquisition of LaSalle, Bank of America would have to digest of a substantial portion of their retail franchise in order to absorb Countrywide Bank. Countrywide Bank is a large thrift bigger than several regional players. In addition, Countrywide has been funding thru the bank so they can continue to keep liquidity flowing via Federal Home Loan Bank advances. They are the biggest borrower that the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta has. In their portfolio they have been forced to retain several of the lower grades of subprime - alt a production. That will not bode well for the NPA's as these loans start to experience problems. Countrywide and Bank of America cannot merge due to Bank of America’s market share of the nations deposits. With the recent acquisition of LaSalle, Bank of America would have to digest of a substantial portion of their retail franchise in order to absorb Countrywide Bank. Countrywide Bank is a large thrift bigger than several regional players. In addition, Countrywide has been funding thru the bank so they can continue to keep liquidity flowing via Federal Home Loan Bank advances. They are the biggest borrower that the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta has. In their portfolio they have been forced to retain several of the lower grades of subprime – alt a production. That will not bode well for the NPA’s as these loans start to experience problems.

]]> By: DDX12000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-8019 DDX12000 Thu, 13 Dec 2007 22:33:18 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-8019 Ann, as a Flagstar employee I would love to hear of any rumors - I don't work in the corporate office, so I'm a bit isolated when it comes to water cooler chat at HQ. Ann, as a Flagstar employee I would love to hear of any rumors – I don’t work in the corporate office, so I’m a bit isolated when it comes to water cooler chat at HQ.

]]> By: mike http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-8005 mike Thu, 13 Dec 2007 20:26:51 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-8005 Banks have ALWAYS tried to undermine the broker community. Yet somehow we have always accepted the new rules and used them to our advantage. I find it intereting that brokers have to go through financial audits, bonding, state licencing and audits, continuing ed, fbi criminal checks and many other qualifying terms in order to write loans. Just what does it take to become a loan officer for a bank? How much risk do they take? Are retail los subject to buyback provisions for fraud? When the day comes the wholesale community will be able to once again qualify the vital need of our existence. Its a hard sell for the banks to convince congress and the white house they had to accept the loans that brokers sold them. Perhaps the strongest lobby in the United States...The National Association of Realtors would PANIC if they thought that only banks would be able to originate loans. There are also many banks that only have a wholesale presence and they arn't too hip on giving the market to their competitors. Remember it was the banks and Savings and Loans Crisis of the 1980s that caused the mortgage broker business to really take foot. No one thinks that this situation is nearly as costly as that one was. There will be no taxpayer bailout. Especially no bailout to the tune of $200 billion tax dollars. The banks have already been bailed out once. I doubt our government wants to put the taxpayers at risk again just because the banks didnt know how to price risk. Remember it was only a few years ago that HUD tried to help the banks with RESPA reform. They had never seen such a revolt as the one the broker community was able to produce. Despite what the bankers may think we are not a weak or feeble bunch. Banks have ALWAYS tried to undermine the broker community. Yet somehow we have always accepted the new rules and used them to our advantage.

I find it intereting that brokers have to go through financial audits, bonding, state licencing and audits, continuing ed, fbi criminal checks and many other qualifying terms in order to write loans. Just what does it take to become a loan officer for a bank? How much risk do they take? Are retail los subject to buyback provisions for fraud?

When the day comes the wholesale community will be able to once again qualify the vital need of our existence. Its a hard sell for the banks to convince congress and the white house they had to accept the loans that brokers sold them.

Perhaps the strongest lobby in the United States…The National Association of Realtors would PANIC if they thought that only banks would be able to originate loans. There are also many banks that only have a wholesale presence and they arn’t too hip on giving the market to their competitors.

Remember it was the banks and Savings and Loans Crisis of the 1980s that caused the mortgage broker business to really take foot. No one thinks that this situation is nearly as costly as that one was. There will be no taxpayer bailout. Especially no bailout to the tune of $200 billion tax dollars. The banks have already been bailed out once. I doubt our government wants to put the taxpayers at risk again just because the banks didnt know how to price risk.

Remember it was only a few years ago that HUD tried to help the banks with RESPA reform. They had never seen such a revolt as the one the broker community was able to produce. Despite what the bankers may think we are not a weak or feeble bunch.

]]> By: Aaron http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7997 Aaron Thu, 13 Dec 2007 19:23:45 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-7997 Mike- our state already has it and they've seen a significant decrease in fraudulent activities since it was started back in 04', prior to the change it was a free for all in the state of Utah. I agree with you about the amount of Retail reps that are still going to get the axe, but my worry is the BANKS have all of the political and press power so we'll see if they use it for good or evil(kidding of course not so black and white). As with you I am a broker and my referring partners like that I left CW and went out on my own. I also see what your talking about with brokers having more flexibility. Here's a scenario I'd like for you to consider Tom, when I worked retail it seemed like every few months we'd have a tightening on certain aspects of the underwriting guidelines. One month we could do this and the next month we couldn't. Then the next month of course we were a little to restrictive and now the same guideline goes back to somewhere in the middle. Meaning they probably just had an investor's U/W bash them for specific instances of this problem. Then of course they talk to another investor in secondary that doesn't see anything wrong with what the first investor saw. Now in this scenario the Broker gets to go to another lender and get the deal done, while your stuck telling the borrower to wait it out. We have over 200 lenders that will look at any loan scenario. Which means I have 200 or so no's to get through until I'm done trying for my customer/referring partner. Tom- when you wrote some of your previous posts I had the stupid idea in my head that you were like most of the realtors out there, high and mighty, when you responded with integrity it made me feel bad for stereotyping, keep up the good posts. Mike- our state already has it and they’ve seen a significant decrease in fraudulent activities since it was started back in 04′, prior to the change it was a free for all in the state of Utah. I agree with you about the amount of Retail reps that are still going to get the axe, but my worry is the BANKS have all of the political and press power so we’ll see if they use it for good or evil(kidding of course not so black and white). As with you I am a broker and my referring partners like that I left CW and went out on my own. I also see what your talking about with brokers having more flexibility. Here’s a scenario I’d like for you to consider Tom, when I worked retail it seemed like every few months we’d have a tightening on certain aspects of the underwriting guidelines. One month we could do this and the next month we couldn’t. Then the next month of course we were a little to restrictive and now the same guideline goes back to somewhere in the middle. Meaning they probably just had an investor’s U/W bash them for specific instances of this problem. Then of course they talk to another investor in secondary that doesn’t see anything wrong with what the first investor saw. Now in this scenario the Broker gets to go to another lender and get the deal done, while your stuck telling the borrower to wait it out. We have over 200 lenders that will look at any loan scenario. Which means I have 200 or so no’s to get through until I’m done trying for my customer/referring partner.
Tom- when you wrote some of your previous posts I had the stupid idea in my head that you were like most of the realtors out there, high and mighty, when you responded with integrity it made me feel bad for stereotyping, keep up the good posts.

]]> By: Changing Times http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7995 Changing Times Thu, 13 Dec 2007 19:11:17 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-7995 Mike- I don't think everything is all negative.... But when the pie is getting smaller by the day and the industry is still way to "over-built", it will not be good for everyone. The ones that it will be good for are going to be the last ones standing!!! Those are the ones with no or little debt and cash reserves. Those are the ones that built their business on people( relationships ) and not on easy business. Those are the ones that will party at the end of the day. Mike- I don’t think everything is all negative…. But when the pie is getting smaller by the day and the industry is still way to “over-built”, it will not be good for everyone. The ones that it will be good for are going to be the last ones standing!!! Those are the ones with no or little debt and cash reserves. Those are the ones that built their business on people( relationships ) and not on easy business. Those are the ones that will party at the end of the day.

]]> By: mike http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7994 mike Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:57:24 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-7994 Tom, I ask all of my account reps how my broker competitors are doing and they say that there has been a big reduction in the broker community but that the ones who are still around are the ones who have always had a good business plan. I think there will be further reductions in the wholesale community but I think retail has yet to make the changes that reflect this new market. Tom, I am not against saying anything negative. I am just tired of never seeing anything but negativity in these blogs. There are alot of positives that never get mentioned. I think this blog should be balanced. It most certainly is almost exclusively negative. I have been advised that we have to see the negatives to be realistic. Well we have to see the positives too. Aaron, pending HR3915 states that all originators retail and wholesale will have to be registered. Thats the way it should be. Otherwise bad broker reps would just go to become bad retail reps. Oh wait there is no such thing as a bad retail rep. They are all perfect angels who sat and prayed while the broker community destroyed everything good about america. LOL Tom,

I ask all of my account reps how my broker competitors are doing and they say that there has been a big reduction in the broker community but that the ones who are still around are the ones who have always had a good business plan. I think there will be further reductions in the wholesale community but I think retail has yet to make the changes that reflect this new market.

Tom, I am not against saying anything negative. I am just tired of never seeing anything but negativity in these blogs. There are alot of positives that never get mentioned. I think this blog should be balanced. It most certainly is almost exclusively negative. I have been advised that we have to see the negatives to be realistic. Well we have to see the positives too.

Aaron, pending HR3915 states that all originators retail and wholesale will have to be registered. Thats the way it should be. Otherwise bad broker reps would just go to become bad retail reps. Oh wait there is no such thing as a bad retail rep. They are all perfect angels who sat and prayed while the broker community destroyed everything good about america. LOL

]]> By: Changing Times http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7993 Changing Times Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:50:27 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-7993 By the way....if some of the legislation and/ or regulations pass, all bets are off!!! We will all need to be looking for a job. Brokers or Bankers, AE's or LO's, East Coast or West Coast, Tom, Chris or Morgan!!! By the way….if some of the legislation and/ or regulations pass, all bets are off!!! We will all need to be looking for a job. Brokers or Bankers, AE’s or LO’s, East Coast or West Coast, Tom, Chris or Morgan!!!

]]> By: Changing Times http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7991 Changing Times Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:36:10 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-7991 Okay let me give you my take on the new year. I have been in this crazy business for the past 23 years and have seen my fair share of CHANGING TIMES. Wholesale is going to slow to a trickle because the media/ government is going to place the blame for the mortgage meltdown on the backs of the mortgage brokers. More and more companies will exit the wholesale business. Secondary will be charging more for brokered loans than retail loans. Therefore if there are anyone doing wholesale it will be more expensive. Many products will not be avaiable to brokers. Brokers will have a hard time competing with retail lenders. So the brokers will either go over to the retail side or leave the business. Countrywide will be bought by BofA, but not until they dump many of their toxic loans. WAMU will struggle through the year. Might merge with someone in 2009. Mortgage Rates will look like a rollercoster, changing with the news of the day. But should stay in a trading range for the most part. We will loose many in the industry next year. Some good people and many bad. But when you get an increase my so many people over the past 5 years, it will take a huge decrease to make the industry healthy again. 50% sounds right for 2008, maybe another 25% in 2009 and then it will level off. Risk avoidance will be the call of the time. Lenders will be "fighting" over the 700+ fico borrowers and really won't care if the loose the other borrowers, unless they go FHA. FHA will increase their market share. Companies and LO's will jump into reverse mortgages just to find out that they take a lot of time and energy to originate, and they just don't have the time.... It is interesting times we live in. Get a hobbie, it helps to take your mind off the market and Hold On we are in for a wild ride. Okay let me give you my take on the new year. I have been in this crazy business for the past 23 years and have seen my fair share of CHANGING TIMES.

Wholesale is going to slow to a trickle because the media/ government is going to place the blame for the mortgage meltdown on the backs of the mortgage brokers. More and more companies will exit the wholesale business. Secondary will be charging more for brokered loans than retail loans. Therefore if there are anyone doing wholesale it will be more expensive. Many products will not be avaiable to brokers. Brokers will have a hard time competing with retail lenders. So the brokers will either go over to the retail side or leave the business.

Countrywide will be bought by BofA, but not until they dump many of their toxic loans. WAMU will struggle through the year. Might merge with someone in 2009.

Mortgage Rates will look like a rollercoster, changing with the news of the day. But should stay in a trading range for the most part.

We will loose many in the industry next year. Some good people and many bad. But when you get an increase my so many people over the past 5 years, it will take a huge decrease to make the industry healthy again. 50% sounds right for 2008, maybe another 25% in 2009 and then it will level off.

Risk avoidance will be the call of the time. Lenders will be “fighting” over the 700+ fico borrowers and really won’t care if the loose the other borrowers, unless they go FHA. FHA will increase their market share. Companies and LO’s will jump into reverse mortgages just to find out that they take a lot of time and energy to originate, and they just don’t have the time….

It is interesting times we live in. Get a hobbie, it helps to take your mind off the market and Hold On we are in for a wild ride.

]]> By: Tom http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7989 Tom Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:26:59 +0000 http://blownmortgage.com/2007/12/12/my-turn-predictions-for-2008/#comment-7989 Mike - I guess that's one of the great things about this world, this industry and this blog - we can all guess and estimate, but we really don't know. In my market, the brokers are getting hurt way more than the banks, but maybe not overall. Aaron - so what sort of response did you think you'd get from me? I really am just a nice guy trying to help my clients and make a living..... :-) The only one of your predictions that I have a significant issue with is #9. I don't think that there will always be 100% purchase programs for average credit people. Mike – I guess that’s one of the great things about this world, this industry and this blog – we can all guess and estimate, but we really don’t know. In my market, the brokers are getting hurt way more than the banks, but maybe not overall.

Aaron – so what sort of response did you think you’d get from me? I really am just a nice guy trying to help my clients and make a living….. :-)

The only one of your predictions that I have a significant issue with is #9. I don’t think that there will always be 100% purchase programs for average credit people.

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