Again no one knows what 2008 will bring. I for one believe we will see a bottom in real estate prices. I believe real estate will stabilize because we have entered our 3rd year of a declining real estate market. If you look at history and compare this mess to the SnL Crisis, its very reasonable to see a bottom in 2008.

You can look at the real concerning factors that some of you have mentioned. Or you can look at the fact that the Treasury Secretary has presented a few innovative ways to help ease the situation. The fed has only dropped rates 3 times now. Of course we havent seen the effects of those rate cuts. It takes more than a fiscal quarter to see the results of a rate cute. In fact it takes 18 months to see the full results of rate cuts. Congress has several pieces of legislation pending that promises to improve current and future real estate markets. Just today the Federal Reserve announced a very innovative plan that all major central banks in the world are participating in to ease the current credit crunch. Banks are bringing in new capital from around the world. I could go on and on but the multiple fixes are well underway.

I am not suggesting for one minute that 2008 wont be a challenging year. However without a doubt there are opportunites to be seen. I know many people who are waiting to pounce on the markets when they stabilize. There is more pent up demand then I have ever seen in my 20 years in mortgage lending.

Again I have to reiterate real estate is local not national. We have 45 out of 50 states where real estate is behaving rather normal. Demographics in several markets show reasons to be optimistic for stabalization.

I am in this business for the long term. And for that reason I remain very optimistic. For those of you who choose to focus on the negatives all I can say is good luck with that plan.

I must say I gotta agree. While I’ve always been the optimist, this is one of those times when you really have got to back up your speculations with hard numbers.

All the news, ALL the real numbers, indicate a further decline in home values and an escalation in foreclosures, job cuts, etc., how can you possibly say it’s “very reasonable” to expect things to stabilize?

There is a difference between chicken little and letting people know what is really going on so that they can act accordingly.

mike – you said: “the important thing to remember is that no one knows what is in store for 2008″ – I disagree completely. We’re 20-odd days out from 2008 and we know, with out a doubt that market prices continue to drop, lenders are continuing to fail, the government agencies are tapped for capital, the lowering of interest rates has not kick-started the secondary mortgage market, and underwriting guidelines continue to come back to reality (with a ways to go) while supply continues to grow with empty homes. The only debate is how much worse will it get in 2008 – not whether or not it will get worse.

“I for one get far more aggravated by those out there who seem to relish news of further pain.”

Define “pain”. Declining housing prices? That’s a good thing, and needs to happen to restore affordability.

“I believe that if we study the facts its very reasonable to expect housing to stabalize and maybe show gains next year”

Please show me these facts. This roller coaster is gaining momentum on its way down. 200 lender implosions, major problems with large home builders, billions in write downs by the banks, a massive freeze of credit globally, and WaMu and Countrywide each have 1 foot in the grave. Oh, and we’re about to enter a recession. If there is counter-information to this, I’d love to see it.

“If we look at history we can see that the SnL crissis of the 1980s was about twice as big as a mess as this one. It took about 5 years for the markets to improve. Real Estate has just entered its 3rd year of a down market.”

We don’t even know how big this mess is, so how are you comparing it to SnL? Yes, it took 5 years for markets to improve in the 80’s, but markets haven’t started improving here yet, so I fail to see the point of that comparison. For all we know, this is one thousand times larger than SnL and will take 100 years to overcome. I’m obviously overstating things, but my point is that nobody knows.

Don’t take any of this as a personal shot, but I think your opinions are dead wrong.

There is NOTHING other than fantasies to suggest that sales OR prices will stabilize in 2008.

The bulk of adjustable rate mortgages have yet to reset, the credit crunch is still well underway, I could on all afternnoon.

The sole indicator for a housing turnaround next year? Realtor opinions.

Most realtors never predicted this downturn in the first place. Why the heck should we listen to them predict the turnaround?

Your cred is shot, my friend.

He gives sugar coating a bad name…

The important thing to remember is that no one knows whats in store for 2008. I have read so many forecast that predicted nothing short of a complete collaspe of the American economy by now. Of course those forecaster’s were very much wrong too. I for one get far more aggravated by those out there who seem to relish news of further pain.

I believe that if we study the facts its very reasonable to expect housing to stabalize and maybe show gains next year. If we look at history we can see that the SnL crissis of the 1980s was about twice as big as a mess as this one. It took about 5 years for the markets to improve. Real Estate has just entered its 3rd year of a down market.

I think its also important to remember that real estate is local—not national. We have 5 out of 50 states that are experiencing the bulk of the mortgage delinquincies. That means that 45 states are poised to rebound much sooner.

Let us have hope for without it we are truly doomed.