NAR forecasts are the biggest joke in economic forecasting bar none

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Mr. Gross has a great article on the folly that is the NAR housing forecasts that have been continually revised downward umpteen times to the delight of blogs such as Housing Panic, this one and others. Personally I think Slate took a soft line; as the revisions don’t just highlight one man’s tough job of balancing the demands of a trade group who will gladly challenge any Jones Town wannabes to a kool aid drinking contest at the drop of a hat. Rather, they point to potential criminal malfeasance foisted upon the American public by those that would benefit most from the misinformation.

From Slate:

But within the fraternity of financial and fiscal forecasters, the seers at the National Association of Realtors?longtime chief economist David Lereah and his successor Lawrence Yun?may be uniquely ill-equipped to deliver sobering forecasts. They work for a trade group whose mission is to buck up the spirits of real-estate brokers. And real-estate brokers?who live to sell, promote, and market?are constitutionally disinclined to hear anything but good news.

In addition to claiming that the sun is shining brilliantly even as rain pours down from the heavens in a mighty stream, Lereah and Yun have also hazarded optimistic, educated guesses about the future.

These hazardous, optimistic forecasts are not with out a seedy underlying motive. Think about it – the NAR makes the most money when the housing market is going well. Their membership swells along with the endless membership dues. People buy more and sell more, pissing away 6% of their equity with every transaction. The NAR and Realtors stand to gain the most when everything is coming up roses. Taking the NAR forecasts as anything other than blatant marketing fraud is inconceivable after the job that David Lereah and Lawrence Yun have done in unwillingly backing away from their erroneous forecasts.

The best thing the NAR could do right now is disband and let a new organization form in its place. It’s reputation is tarnished beyond repair. People who wear the Realtor badge are now labeled pariahs – not trusted advisors. Since this Utopian outcome is as implausible as the NAR making an accurate forecast, the NAR should immediately fire Yun; hire a real economist and apologize profusely for the immense harm they have caused the public via their unrealistic and damaging forecasts. With that apology they should issue a realistic sales forecast that has a snowflake’s chance in hell of being within a few percent of reality and make a public pledge to put an immediate end to the despicable practice of using the one bright spot in each hurricane of terrible news to cling to their untenable position.

The NAR is a joke and their members should be furious that they continually have their credibility ripped out from under their feet by statements of ineptitude and outright deceit that carry their mark of approval such as this latest one:

The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,? he said. ?Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.?

I really have no clue how he can make statements such as this in light of a clearly deteriorating market. Does he have to go home and shower after putting his name next to these statements? I know a lot of Realtors – how about you guys start a petition to have this idiot fired instead of sapping every last ounce of credibility you have?