Scratch and Dent Loan Market Takes a Bad Beating

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Nautilus Capital – a “scratch and dent” broker that we use to unload loans that won’t be purchased once closed from our investors due to defects or other issues sent this email out to its sellers today.Â Here it is in its entirety:

Scratch & Dent Loan Pricing Will Continue to Decline
Loan sale pricing is not going to improve in the foreseeable future; in fact, it will probably get worse. Unless you are prepared to hold the loans to maturity, our advice is to liquidate your inventory now. You may not like todayâ??s pricing, but you will like tomorrowâ??s even less.

As everyone in the industry now knows, most mortgage loans ultimately wind up on Wall Street in a securitization trust. The securitization market thus plays a vital role not only in pricing in the secondary market, but also in establishing underwriting criteria. An illustration of market-driven tighter lending standards was provided by todayâ??s announcement that subprime 2/28 ARM loans will no longer be purchased by many investors. This is a direct result of recent changes by the rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Moodys, etc.), who determine the subordination and overcollateralization levels necessary for the different risk grades (or â??tranchesâ??) of the securitization trusts. If you have any such loans in your inventory it is probably too late to sell them except in the scratch & dent market.

Separately, several recent events are having a significant adverse effect on loan pricing, of all credit grades. The bankruptcies of a number of large subprime lenders (the latest being Alliance Bancorp, last week) is well known, but what is not widely understood is that their portfolios are being dumped on the market in huge volumes by their creditors. Similarly, a pair of highly-leveraged mortgage hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns recently collapsed, causing near-total losses to their investors. Their portfolios are being liquidated, but the sales apparently are not going well; rumor has it that only a small portion has yet been sold, andÂ at a significantlyÂ higher discountÂ than anticipated.

These massive sales are depressing pricing across the board. Prices on the ABX indices (used by mortgage bond traders to manage risk) have declined severely in just the last week. The trend lines for the AAA and BBB- tranches (the highest and lowest risk grades, respectively) are shown in the graphs above. Note that the AAA line, which was stable for so long, has now collapsed. Investors in these highest-quality bonds, who once thought they were immune to credit quality issues in the underlying loans, are now not so sure. The BBB- tranche, which is necessary to support pricing for all the higher grades, is trading for half of what it was in January.

What this all means to lenders is that loan prices are dropping precipitously, and you should complete any pending sales (premium as well as scratch & dent) as quickly as possible. If you have received a bid on a pool but have not yet decided whether to accept it, check with your investor; the bid may no longer be there. If it is, hit it now.

Please contact your loan sale advisor at Nautilus Capital to discuss market conditions or assist inÂ selling your loans.